The (SPX) has entered what BTIG analysts describe as the “fade zone,” an area between 5400 and 5440 where the firm believes the index may face resistance and see a pullback.
According to BTIG in a note to clients on Wednesday, the SPX has reached 5400, and although there could be a bit more upside potential, there is significant confluence in this area that suggests caution.
“The 20-day DMA [20-day moving average] is 5414, and the 50 DMA is 5451, so there could be a bit more upside, but there’s a lot of confluence in this area,” BTIG noted.
The firm also observed that the market’s breadth is “okay but not great today,” with 70% of NYSE volume in advancing stocks. However, they add that small-caps are lagging despite a dip in interest rates following a cooler-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report.
BTIG believes this divergence could signal underlying weakness.
Volume trends are another area of concern, according to the firm. “Volumes are light again today, and SPY has traded lower volume each day since last Monday’s low,” BTIG pointed out.
This pattern, where volume increases on the way down and decreases on the way up, is said to suggest that buyers may be losing momentum.
Additionally, BTIG highlighted that Put/Call ratios are running low, indicating “little interest in hedging” after a recent 5% to 6% bounce from the lows.
Furthermore, the analysts also mentioned the yen’s slight strengthening, which could be another signal to reduce risk, as the correlation between the and indices like the (NDX) may be weakening.
“While the correlation between USD/JPY and something like the NDX likely won’t last forever, the two had been locked at the hip for much of the last couple weeks and now they are going in opposite directions,” they wrote.
BTIG advises caution as the S&P 500 enters the fade zone, with multiple signals pointing to a potential pullback. The firm says it would be “lightening up on risk here.”