The S&P 500 rose by around 70 bps on Wednesday. The key takeaway is that the index cleared resistance at the 10-day exponential moving average. The negative, however, is that it failed at the 20-day exponential moving average. It’s hard to draw firm conclusions right now, given all the headline-driven moves.
For the moment, we have to rely on what the charts—and, more importantly, options positioning—tell us: the market is facing resistance from a technical and options standpoint.
From an options perspective, there appears to be a significant amount of positive gamma built up at 6,600, which should also act as resistance. Additionally, we are no longer in a negative gamma regime, meaning hedging flows should help dampen volatility.
The biggest factor heading into today is that the market is closed on Friday, while the jobs report is still being released that day. Given ongoing geopolitical developments, there is a strong likelihood that implied volatility will rise on Thursday.
Anyway, this will be the last update until April 12.