Oil Shock, War Risk, and Jobs Data—Markets Face a Critical Week

Key highlights:

• Japan’s plunged over 4% Monday, erasing its year‑to‑date gains in a broad rout as benchmark yields briefly hit a 27‑year high before easing amid stagflation fears tied to the widening Middle East war; raised inflation worries and bets on an earlier BOJ rate hike.
• Oil surged Monday, with headed for a record monthly gain after Yemeni Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel, widening the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. Brent rose $2.43 (2.2%) to $115/bbl after a 4.2% Friday jump. U.S. WTI climbed $1.86 (1.9%) to $101.50 following a 5.5% gain.
• The U.S. dollar held broadly steady Monday, set for its biggest monthly gain since July as concerns about a prolonged Middle East war pressured the yen past the key 160 level and stoked intervention worries.
• Gold held steady in a volatile session as a softer dollar was offset by surging energy prices that stoked inflation fears and dimmed odds of Fed rate cuts. Spot gold eased 0.1% to $4,488.46/oz at 0431 GMT after swinging more than 1%.
• Aluminium jumped Monday as markets braced for a deeper supply shock after Iranian strikes damaged two major Middle East producers. LME three‑month aluminium rose 4.34% to $3,439/ton at 0143 GMT, earlier touching $3,492 — near a four‑year high of $3,546.50.

, S&P 500 and futures slipped Sunday night but recovered from deeper losses. briefly topped $100 before retreating. President Trump said talks with Iran are advancing while issuing threats. Pentagon is reportedly planning for extended ground operations in Iran, and Yemen’s Houthis have joined the fighting.

The S&P 500 fell roughly 2% last week, driven largely by weakness in mega-cap tech stocks, while the more industrially weighted Dow Jones remained roughly unchanged. Meanwhile, bond yields climbed as investors worried about the inflationary effects of rising energy prices and potential central-bank responses.

Geopolitics and energy are driving markets. The conflict in Iran has kept energy prices and volatility elevated, raising concerns about a prolonged energy-price shock that will push headline inflation higher in the near term and delay central-bank progress toward inflation targets.

Rising and tighter financial conditions are likely to weigh unevenly on growth, dampening consumer spending, housing, and other rate‑sensitive activity.

Tuesday closes a rough Q1 for U.S. stocks, the S&P 500 is down about 7% in 2026 after three years of double‑digit gains, battered by the Iran conflict, AI disruption fears, and private‑credit strains.

US Economic data and Earnings Calendar:

Friday’s March U.S. jobs report will be closely watched after February’s 92,000 payroll decline, with ’s March private‑sector hiring due Wednesday.

The labor market weakness prompted in late 2025, but rising inflation has since kept policy on hold; further job weakness could renew pressure on the central bank.

Tuesday’s March consumer‑confidence report will be watched for public sentiment on the US–Iran conflict’s impact. Wednesday’s February retail‑sales report will show whether consumer spending roughly two‑thirds of the US economy, remained weak.

Economic calendar:

Monday, 3/30

Tuesday, 3/31

• , (March), S&P Case-Shiller (Jan), /Business Barometer (March)
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

Wednesday, 4/1

• U.S. (Feb), More to watch: ADP employment (Mar), Business inventories (Jan), (Mar), (Mar)

Thursday, 4/2

• U.S. trade deficit (Feb), (week ending Mar 28)

Friday, 4/3

• U.S. employment report (Mar), (Mar), (Mar)

Earnings calendar:

Monday, 3/30

Tuesday, 3/31

Wednesday, 4/1

Thursday, 4/2

As Q1 ends, so does the year‑end earnings season. S&P 500 earnings rose 14%, the fifth straight quarter of double‑digit gains.

is the week’s marquee report, trading near a 52‑week low. The stock remains under scrutiny after a 10% drop following its December Q3 release. Some analysts view the sell-off as a potential trough for Nike. Barclays upgraded the stock, saying its financials may have hit a “fundamental bottom.” Analysts see upside of roughly 30% or more.

Also watch smaller reporters like TD Synnex (NYSE:SNX) and Unifirst (NYSE:UNF).

Technical Analysis:

DJIA Index

• Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading in a descending channel since late Feb 2026, breaking below the prior rising channel that ran Aug ’25–Feb ’26.
• This week’s channel range: 44,330–46,120; midpoint at 45,200.
• A Monday opening above 45,200 would favor a counter‑trend rally toward 46,120.
• Rejection at 46,120 would likely trigger a pullback to 44,330.
• Note: DJI sits above its prior all‑time high near 45,000, which should function as key support.

• Nasdaq hit a low of 23,088 last week (target noted 23,260 previously).
• Support sits around 23,000.
• Staying above 23,000 could spark a relief rally toward 23,900 – 24,000 resistance.
• A decisive break below 23,000 would open the path to 22,690.

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