Gold’s Bullish Trend Faces Key Tests at $4,655 and $4,800

• Gold remains supported by a weak dollar and fading Fed rate-hike expectations.
• US fiscal concerns, Iran sanctions, and Jackson Hole could drive the US dollar and gold this week.
• Gold’s key support is 4,500–4,541, while 4,655 and 4,800 are the next resistance levels.

has started this week on the front foot after climbing for the third consecutive week with impressive gains. The metal has been boosted by a soft amid collapsing expectations from the Fed. This week promises to be a busy one with several fundamental events taking place, which could set the tone for gold and indeed other financial markets for weeks to come.

What to Watch Out for This Week

Investors are continuing to watch the bond and for direction. The US debasement trade will be put to the test, with fresh policy updates from the US government. Today it is the so-called ’economic D-Day’ for Iran, while the stress in the Treasury market calls for some kind of US fiscal consolidation.

Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday could also be another catalyst for a sharp move in financial markets. On top of this, we have some important inflation data midweek.

Gold Continues to Ignore Rising Yields

Much like throughout 2025 and early 2026, gold has risen in the last couple of weeks alongside . Usually, higher yields tend to diminish the metal’s appeal due to its non-yielding characteristic. But yields are rising not because of rising rate-hike expectations. They are rising because of concerns about the unsustainable levels of debt in the US (as well as Japan and elsewhere) and the rising cost of servicing the debt. This is the fundamental reason why the dollar is struggling despite rising oil prices.

For now, the dollar remains under pressure. The balance between US fiscal credibility, trade policy and the Fed’s inflation stance will be crucial in determining whether its recent lows hold, or whether dollar falls further, providing fresh support for gold.

Dollar Remains Undermined

The dollar remains close to its recent lows in what still is a pro-risk, soft-dollar environment. But the potential is there for a sharper sell-off in the dollar as the so-called ‘debasement’ trade returns.

That view could be put to the test later today, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent set to announce a new package of sanctions on Iran. The key question is whether the new Iran measures once again threaten US trade relations with China, which remains the largest buyer of Iranian energy exports. Any significant re-escalation of the tariff war would probably be negative for the dollar.

Another US policy issue in focus is the prospect of fiscal consolidation flagged by Bessent last week. Few expect meaningful spending cuts or tax increases, given the Trump administration’s pro-growth policies.

Beyond fiscal and trade policy, the macro calendar is also busy. Wednesday brings the release of US inflation for July, while Friday afternoon sees Kevin Warsh deliver a keynote speech at the . He is unlikely to provide much, if any, clarity on what the Fed will do with monetary policy next month. But Warsh will be under pressure to reinforce the Fed’s inflation-fighting credentials.

Unless Warsh manages to reverse the course in bond yields, the dollar could remain under pressure, and that could see gold continue to find support on the dips.

Gold Technical Analysis

Gold has already cleared many resistance levels during its sharp repricing higher in the last few weeks. Some of those broken resistance levels are expected to now provide support on any short-term dips, if we see any this week.

Among the key support levels to watch, the area between 4,500 and 4541 is now a key zone where the 200-day average meets a prior resistance level. Below that, the area between $4,400 to $4,450 is the next support zone.

The line in the sand is at 4324, marking the most recent low prior to the rally. Break that, and all bullish bets are off.

In terms of potential resistance levels to watch, 4655 is an interesting one to watch. Above that, round handles like $4700, $4,800 come into view. The long-term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level comes in at $4965, followed by the psychological level of 5,000 next.

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