Investing.com– Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for the second time in less than two weeks amid prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and growing structural risks in global supply as key drivers of a more bullish outlook.
The investment bank now assumes that flows through Hormuz will remain at just 5% of normal levels for six weeks, followed by a gradual one-month recovery. That extended disruption, combined with the concentration of global production and spare capacity, is expected to reshape market dynamics.
Daan Struyven, who leads Goldman research on oil markets, believes that “a recognition of the risks from the high concentration of production and spare capacity is likely to lead to structurally higher strategic stockpiling and long-dated prices.”
In the near term, prices are expected to continue drifting higher as uncertainty persists. “Prices are likely to trend higher… until the market gains confidence that a lengthy disruption is unlikely,” the Struyven said, adding that a “growing risk premium” will be needed to curb demand and hedge against potential shortages.
Reflecting this, Struyven now expects to average $110 in March-April, up from a prior forecast of $98 and marking a sharp increase from 2025 levels.
The upgrade extends beyond the immediate disruption. Goldman raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $85 from $77, with WTI seen at $79, while longer-dated prices have also been revised higher. The bank said the changes reflect both a deeper drawdown in commercial inventories and a repricing of effective spare capacity as markets adjust to higher risks.
On March 11, Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent and WTI crude forecasts to $71 and $67 per barrel, respectively, from $66 and $62.
Looking further ahead, Goldman sees Brent averaging $80 in 2027 but flags significant upside risks. In more extreme scenarios where Hormuz flows remain severely constrained for longer, “daily Brent prices would likely exceed their 2008 record.”
Even in a less severe case, prices could remain elevated. In a “severely adverse scenario” involving a sustained loss of Middle East supply, Brent could spike before settling around $115 by late 2026.