Key Highlights
- European stocks jumped Monday as a sharp fall in crude eased inflation concerns ahead of a pivotal week for central banks and earnings. The rose about 0.8% at 0750 Et, led by rate-sensitive growth, industrials, and airlines. Germany’s climbed 1.6%, France’s +0.8%, Italy’s +0.6%, Spain’s +1.3% and the +0.4%.
- Japan’s Nikkei finished Monday up, buoyed by lower oil prices after U.S. attacks on Iran paused, while investors remained cautious ahead of this week’s major earnings. The climbed 0.5% to 64,931.19 after intraday swings, and the broader gained 1.37% to 4,066.07.
- CXMT Corp (688825.SS) surged 466% on its Shanghai debut after Asia’s biggest IPO this year, closing at 49 yuan (intraday high 55.03) versus an IPO price of 8.66 yuan. The chipmaker’s rally vaulted its market value to 3.3 trillion yuan ($488B), underscoring Beijing’s push for semiconductor self-sufficiency amid intensifying U.S. curbs.
- Oil plunged about 7% on Monday to a one-week low after the U.S. and Iran paused strikes, raising hopes for a diplomatic de‑escalation and resumed Strait of Hormuz shipping. fell $7.55 (7.8%) to $89.23/bbl at 0602 ET, and U.S. WTI slid $6.01 (6.7%) to $83.30 both at their weakest levels since July 20.
- Oil and gas stocks plunged after the U.S. halted two weeks of strikes on Iran and Tehran signaled it would pause retaliatory attacks, easing escalation fears and pressuring crude. By 09:13 ET, Chevron and Exxon fell 2.9%, ConocoPhillips -3.25%, Devon -3.29%, SLB -1.47%, Halliburton -2.46%, Occidental -3.42% and Diamondback -3.54%.
- Gold rose Monday as a pause in U.S.-Iran strikes pushed oil lower, easing inflation and rate fears ahead of the Fed. Spot gold () gained 0.75% to $4,083.73/oz by 0919 ET; U.S. August futures () rose 0.35% to $4,085.00.
- The dollar slipped on Monday as a pause in U.S. strikes on Iran pushed oil lower and boosted risk appetite ahead of a busy central-bank week. fell 0.1% to 163.645 (on track for its biggest one‑day drop since July 10), the rose 0.2% to $1.130, and the eased about 0.1% to $1.331. The fell 0.1% to 101.34 ahead of the Fed meeting.
U.S. stocks jumped at the open on Monday as falling crude eased inflation fears, fueling gains ahead of a pivotal week of Fed rate decisions and major mega‑cap tech earnings.
At 09:32 ET (13:32 GMT), the S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 7,469.16, the gained 0.9% to 25,185.80, and the Dow added 1.2% to 52,561.77.
All three indexes entered the week after weekly losses—the Nasdaq fell over 2%—weighed down by Middle East tensions, worries over heavy AI-related capex from the likes of Alphabet and Tesla, and renewed trade‑tension risks from new U.S. tariffs.
US Economic Data and Earnings Calendar
This week spotlights America’s AI buildout as major tech earnings arrive and Fed officials weigh in.
Some officials warn AI infrastructure spending could drive more persistent inflation than Iran-related energy shocks. The is expected to discuss AI’s inflationary impact when it meets Tuesday–Wednesday. No rate move is likely this week, though hikes later in the year remain possible; the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and Q2 GDP print arrive Thursday.
The two-day FOMC wraps Wednesday amid unusual uncertainty after new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled, he will not telegraph the rate path. With inflation above target for over five years and Warsh calling inflation “a choice,” markets expect at least two 25bp hikes over the next year.
Economic Calendar: (Week of July 27 – 31)
Mon 07/27:
Tue 07/28:
- Advanced International Trade in Goods; Advanced Retail Inventories; Advanced Wholesale Inventories; Consumer Confidence; FHFA Housing Price Index; S&P Case‑Shiller Home Price Index
Wed 07/29:
- FOMC Decision; EIA ; MBA Mortgage Applications Index
Thu–Fri 07/30–07/31:
- Monetary Policy Meeting (two‑day)
Thu 07/30:
- ; EIA Natural Gas Inventories; Q2 GDP (Advance); Initial Claims; PCE Prices; Personal Income; Personal Spending
Fri 07/31:
- Chicago PMI; Employment Cost Index;
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar, a more detailed calendar
Key Earnings Calendar: (Week of July 27 – 31)
Monday 07/27: Applied Digital (APLD); Celestica Inc. (); Dyne Therapeutics, Inc. (DYN); F5, Inc. (); Nucor Corp. (); Principal Financial Group, Inc. (PFG); Welltower Inc. (WELL).
Tuesday 07/28: American Tower Corp. (AMT); Barclays PLC (BCS); Bloom Energy Corp. (BE); Boeing Co. (BA); The Coca‑Cola Company (KO); Corning Inc. (GLW); Electronic Arts Inc. (EA); Ford Motor Co. (F); GSK plc (GSK); Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW); KLA Corp. (KLAC); S&P Global Inc. (SPGI); Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX); Sherwin‑Williams Co. (SHW); Teradyne Inc. (TER); United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS); Visa Inc. (V).
Wednesday 07/29: Amphenol Corp. (APH); Aon plc (AON); Arm Holdings plc (ARM); Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP); Boston Scientific Corp. (BSX); Deutsche Bank AG (DB); General Dynamics Corp. (GD); Johnson Controls International plc (JCI); Lam Research Corp. (LRCX); Meta Platforms, Inc. (); Microsoft Corp. (); Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM); Starbucks Corp. (SBUX); UBS Group AG (UBS); Vertiv Holdings Co. (VRT).
Thursday 07/30: Amazon.com, Inc. (); Anheuser‑Busch InBev SA (BUD); Apple Inc. (); Bristol‑Myers Squibb Co. (BMY); Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN); Corteva, Inc. (CTVA); Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV); Mastercard Inc. (MA); Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR); Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR); Shell plc (SHEL); Stryker Corp. (SYK); Trane Technologies plc (TT); Vale S.A. (VALE).
Friday 07/31: AbbVie Inc. (ABBV); Chevron Corp. (CVX); Colgate‑Palmolive Co. (CL); Dominion Energy, Inc. (D); Eaton Corp. plc (ETN); Enbridge Inc. (ENB); Linde plc (LIN); NatWest Group plc (NWG).
https://www.investing.com/earnings-calendar, a more detailed calendar
Amazon (AMZN) reports Q2 late Thursday. Analysts expect EPS $1.81 (+8%) and revenue $196.7B (+17%) (FactSet). Investors will watch capex guidance—Amazon set $200B for 2026—and AWS growth (Wall Street sees AWS revenue up 31.7% vs 28% in Q1). Amazon stock is up 1.5% YTD.
Apple (AAPL) reports fiscal Q3 late Thursday; analysts expect EPS +20% and revenue +16%. It is Tim Cook’s final call before John Ternus becomes CEO on Sept. 1. Key watchpoints: product price pressure from rising memory costs and execution of Apple’s early AI strategy. Shares are up 22% YTD.
Microsoft (MSFT) reports fiscal Q4 late Wednesday. Estimates: EPS $4.24 (+16% YoY) and revenue $87.6B (+15%). Investors remain wary of heavy AI data‑center spending and potential SaaS disruption from AI startups. Morgan Stanley initiated coverage July 21 with an overweight rating and $600 price target.
Meta (META) reports Q2 on Wednesday with capex front and center — CEO Mark Zuckerberg shows no signs of dialing back big AI investments, and analysts expect Meta may raise 2026 capex guidance after Google’s lead. Meta had projected $125–145B in capex this year and has signaled plans to monetize assets (including leasing data centers). FactSet estimates: EPS +
Robinhood () reports after the close Wednesday; analysts expect in‑line EPS $0.42 despite revenue +29%, with investors watching growth in high‑margin Robinhood Gold subscriptions.
F5 Networks (FFIV) reports fiscal Q3 on July 27; Street sees EPS $4.00 (4%) and revenue +7% to $834.6M. FFIV is up 53% YTD.
Nucor (NUE) reports Q2 Monday after the close; forecasts call for EPS +72% and revenue +20%.
Celestica (CLS) also reports Monday after the close; analysts expect the AI data‑center boom to continue—sales +50% and EPS +63%—with backlog levels watched as a gauge of long‑term AI infrastructure demand.
Weekly US Indices Probability Map
- The U.S. weekly market probability map for July 27-31, 2026 suggests “Heading into a directionless week — earnings and macro noise likely to keep moves choppy!”.
- July historically strong: since 2007 +2.32% avg in 85% of years; Nasdaq +3.11% avg in 75%; S&P 500 +2.41% avg in 75%.
- Sentiment readings are derived from a hsitorical data based scoring system including geopoliticl risk.
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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, & Fund Management. He is the founder of www.twtlearning.com providing financial education, research and advisory services to fund & hedge fund managers and family offices.
He has been trading FX, FX options, US stocks & options, Indices, Commodities & Oil, and Metals Futures. He has a CMT charter, an AAPTA membership, and a CMT Canada membership. He has worked in various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.
He is regarded as an excellent mentor and has trained more than 2000+ users in North America, Gulf countries & Asia on financial markets & products, active and passive trading, and technical analysis strategies. He emanated technical analysis daily and weekly reports for BridgeNews Chicago bureau and updated technical analysis reports on Bloomberg and Reuters while working with ABN Amro bank treasury & capital markets. Has moderated and produced technical analysis reports for Thomson Reuters (Refinitiv) users’ chat rooms and trained users on technical analysis techniques and models. Conducted TA & Global Markets outlook workshop with central banks, sovereign funds, global & regional banks & family offices.