Investing.com — HSBC has downgraded AstraZeneca () () to Hold from Buy and slashed its price target to 13,750 pence from 16,500 pence, after the drugmaker’s Wainua trial failed to meet its primary endpoint in a Phase 3 study.
“Wainua setback impairs our bull case, given the more difficult catalyst path ahead,” HSBC analyst Rajesh Kumar said in a note.
Shares in the British pharma giant fell 1.3% in London trading, while its U.S.-listed shares shed 1.5% in the premarket trade.
Success in the CARDIO-TTR trial had underpinned HSBC’s positive view on the stock, Kumar noted, representing a market opportunity of more than $5 billion.
The analyst cited three reasons for losing conviction in his bullish case. First, while the path to more than $80 billion in peak revenues by 2030 still exists, it now depends on catalysts that are more volatile and unlikely to read out before 2027.
Second, HSBC’s own trial analysis left it “rather uncomfortable” with upcoming SERENA-4 and AVANZAR readouts expected in the second half of 2026.
Finally, Kumar warned that “if three trials fail in a sequence, the widely held view of Astra’s market-leading R&D platform might lose its shine,” potentially capping the stock’s ability to re-rate.
HSBC’s scenario analysis suggests that if the bear cases for SERENA-4 and AVANZAR play out, concerns about AstraZeneca’s ability to manage revenue decline amid large patent cliffs in the early 2030s would leave the company’s upside “capped on a 6-9-month basis,” reliant on catalyst successes in 2027.
“We downgrade the stock to a Hold rating (from Buy) as we no longer find the risk-reward balance attractive, particularly with the remaining catalyst path for 2026 (SERENA‑4, AVANZAR) skewed to downside risks,” Kumar concluded.