Investing.com — Bernstein raised its price target on to €2,300 from €1,700, citing an acceleration in the capital expenditure cycle and rising lithography intensity.
The brokerage kept its “outperform” rating on the Dutch chipmaking equipment maker and raised its target multiple to 40 times earnings from 35 times, which it described as one standard deviation above the historical mean.
Bernstein said it materially increased its ASML topline forecasts “following the unprecedented AIdriven expansion in both advanced logic and DRAM capacity.”
The brokerage raised its 2027 shipment forecast for extreme ultraviolet lithography systems, including High-NA machines, to 91 units from 86, and its 2028 forecast to 113 units from 87.
The brokerage said it now expects ASML’s EUV revenue to grow at 30% compound annual rate, reaching €42.7 billion by 2030, more than 30% above what it called the street estimate.
It also raised its deep ultraviolet, or DUV, revenue estimate to €20 billion by 2030, up from €13 billion in 2026.
Bernstein said it expects overall ASML revenue to reach €80 billion by 2030, a 20% compound annual growth rate, which it said is 24% above consensus estimates of €64 billion for that year.
It projected 2028 earnings per share of €67, which it said is 35% above consensus, and 2030 earnings per share of €97, a 31% compound annual growth rate.
On adoption of High-NA EUV technology, Bernstein said it expects memory chipmakers to adopt the tool before logic chipmakers, because DRAM die size is smaller and requires only one mask, while logic dies mostly need two masks due to larger die size.
The broker said and Samsung are likely to adopt High-NA in DRAM production in 2027, followed by in logic in 2028, Samsung logic in 2029, and in 2030.
Bernstein said TSMC’s slower adoption timeline “doesn’t change the view that HNA is better,” attributing it to the company’s “prudence and conservativeness to adopt new technologies vs. optimizing existing technologies.”
The broker estimated that litho intensity, the share of total manufacturing cost attributable to lithography, will rise from 24% in 2025 to 26% in 2028, driven mainly by DRAM.
Bernstein also raised its price targets on several other chip-sector companies it covers: TSMC to $430 from $351, Intel to $100 from $65, to 440,000 Korean won from 225,000 won, SK Hynix to 3,300,000 won from 1,150,000 won, and to $1,300 from $510.
The broker listed downside risks to its ASML target as margins falling short of expectations due to the cost of commercializing EUV technology, greater-than-expected inventory buildup in China, a weaker-than-expected wafer fab equipment market, and further export controls on customers in China.