- Diesel cracks hit record highs above $100/bbl as global product supplies tighten sharply.
- Middle East and Russian diesel exports have fallen by more than 50%, while inventories continue dropping.
- Diesel prices could climb further this autumn, adding inflation pressure as seasonal demand rises.
The oil market has remained complacent for months amid the worst disruption in global supply, with crude oil futures rarely topping $100 per barrel over the six months in which tanker traffic at the Strait of Hormuz is a trickle compared to pre-war levels.
While market participants have been putting too much hope of a resolution of the conflict in their bets on future crude prices, product supply of the fuel of the economies – diesel – has been shrinking.
So much has the diesel market tightened in recent months that the diesel crack spread, the pricing difference between a barrel of crude oil and the diesel refined from it, hit record highs in both the United States and Europe this week.
The crude oil market shows traders’ expectations of near-term supply, but the diesel markets are flashing the very real physical tightness of the petroleum product whose consumption has yet to rise this year and whose availability and prices drive economies and inflation.
The diesel crack spread in the United States hit triple digits this week, for the first time ever. The premium over crude prices jumped to as high as $102 per barrel on Monday, before easing slightly to about $100 a barrel on Tuesday.
The diesel markets are roiled by the wars in Iran and Ukraine, which stifle product supply out of the Middle East and Russia, while Chinese fuel exports have yet to meaningfully rebound following months of restrictions to protect domestic supply, with the Strait of Hormuz mostly closed.
Refineries in the U.S. and Europe are running flat out to offset the lost diesel supply from the Middle East, Russia, and China.
The relief is only partial, as middle distillate inventories are crashing worldwide, including in the United States, where they are now sitting 12% below the five-year average for this time of year.
The near-capacity runs at refineries, many of which delay planned maintenance to boost supply amid record refining margins, raises the odds of the diesel market being one hurricane or one unexpected stoppage away from new record highs.
“Refinery margins globally are near record levels, driven largely by a severe and worsening diesel shortage,” Rohit Rathod, senior oil market analyst at energy flows analytics firm Vortexa, said this week.
Russia’s ban on diesel exports following Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and the Middle East’s shipping problems amid the Iran war have sunk diesel availability from these regions.
Diesel and gasoil exports from the Middle East and Russia have crashed by more than 50% in recent weeks—to just 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) from about 3.3 million bpd, according to Vortexa data.
This leaves the global diesel market precariously tight amid falling inventories in the U.S. and Europe and supply falling short of demand that is going up.
As a result, prices have soared, with the average U.S. diesel price at $5.47 per gallon, up by 8% in one month and more than 40% higher from the year-ago average price of $3.69.
Diesel demand is set for an increase in the coming weeks as farmers prepare for harvest, truckers ship more goods for stores to stock up for the holidays, and households buy gasoil for heating fuel in the winter.
Gasoline may have seen some demand destruction amid the high prices, but diesel demand is more inelastic.
“Diesel is the lifeblood of the industrial economy and you don’t just turn it off,” Robert Campbell at Energy Aspects told the Financial Times.
The fuel is indispensable for economies, and prices could go further in the autumn, to increase inflationary pressure on goods and hit consumers’ (voters’) wallets ahead of the midterm elections in the U.S. in early November.
Related: EIA Shows Inventories Still Rising