The USDA revised higher its 2024/25 US corn production estimates by 240m bushels to 15.1bn bushels due to expectations for higher acreage. Harvested area estimates were increased by 1.3m acres to 83.4m acres, while yield estimates were left unchanged at 181bu/acres. Despite the increase in output numbers, the USDA still lowered its ending stock estimates for 2024/25 to 2.097b bushels, below the roughly 2.29b bushels the market was expecting. Lower ending stocks were driven by expectations of stronger demand, but more importantly due to lower estimates for 2023/24 ending stocks. While US corn balance numbers indicate a relatively tighter-than-expected market, the fact that stocks are still projected to exceed 2bn bushels suggests a comfortably supplied market.
Changes to the global corn balance came largely in line with expectations when it comes to stocks. 2024/25 corn ending stocks were increased from 310.8mt last month to 311.6mt, as was largely expected. Global output estimates for 2024/25 were raised to 1,224.8mt (vs. 1,220.5mt), driven by higher US output. Stronger output was partly offset by lower beginning stocks.