The price action in oil yesterday was choppy. US dollar movements, Chinese demand concerns and expectations of a tighter global oil balance through the third quarter of the year all contributed to this choppy session. However, with ICE Brent settling below US$85/bbl, USD strength and Chinese demand worries were clearly the dominant drivers.
China’s data dump yesterday was fairly bearish. Second-quarter GDP came in at 4.7% year-on-year, below the market consensus of 5.1%. In addition, refinery activity in China slowed further in June. Refineries processed around 14.25m b/d in the month, down 3.7% YoY. Meanwhile, cumulative crude processed over the first six months of the year came in at 14.5m b/d, down 0.4% YoY. Trade and output numbers also suggest that China’s apparent oil demand fell to around 13.7m b/d in June, the lowest level since February 2023.
European natural gas prices edged lower yesterday. TTF settled 1.1% lower on the day as European gas storage broke above the 81% full mark. In the absence of any significant supply disruptions, storage is on track to hit 100% full ahead of the next heating season.
The LNG market continues to face some supply disruptions. The Freeport LNG export facility in the US has still not returned to normal operations following Hurricane Beryl. However, the plant is expected to go through a phased restart from this week.