Kunal Shah, Vice President and Head of Commodities Research at Nirmal Bang Commodities, believes gold has already priced in all the positives that drove it to recent highs. “In the near term, gold has already discounted all the positives that were supposed to drive it higher to $4,400–$4,500. The moment we see the ongoing US government shutdown end, we’re likely to see profit-taking,” he said.
Shah expects gold prices to enter a major consolidation phase, with prices potentially cooling to around $4,000 per ounce on CME futures before the next leg higher. By next Diwali, he projects gold could deliver conservative gains of 10–12%, with $4,550 as the upper range.
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, echoed a similar view, saying the timing of the correction is appropriate. “Diwali demand has now passed, removing the short term strong demand that drove prices to these levels,” he said. Hansen expects gold prices to correct by $200-400 before stabilising. However, he remains constructive for 2026, noting that “the world remains a troubled place, debt levels are worrying investors, especially in the US, and with that in mind, demand will stay firm to take prices higher towards $5,000 next year.”
Peter McGuire, CEO of Trading.com, also expects gold to hold firm amid global uncertainty. “Stock markets are out of control—look at the Nikkei, CSI 300, Dow, and S&P. That could push gold further up,” he said, adding that $5,000 per ounce is a level investors should watch. McGuire believes the next few months will be “dynamic”, citing possible rate cuts, geopolitical developments, and the ongoing US government shutdown as key drivers.
While gold may take a pause, experts see silver continuing to shine. Hansen noted that silver has reached record highs around $50 per ounce and could climb further. “Even though silver has reached its short-term potential relative to gold, I still see it outperforming gold next year. If gold moves towards $5,000, silver will likely do even better,” he said, adding that prices near $65 per ounce “would not be a major surprise” based on current trends.
The broader commodity space has seen strong momentum this year, driven by safe-haven demand amid a weakening US Dollar Index, global macro uncertainties, and geopolitical tensions. From bullion to agriculture, the rally has been broad-based. Gold prices have surged about 60% this year, while silver has jumped nearly 80% and platinum has gained 85%. Even base metals like copper, aluminium, zinc, and palladium have rallied.
However, following a strong run-up, some profit-taking has set in across the board. During Mahurat trading, more declines than gains were seen in many commodities, suggesting that after a stupendous year for bullion, a period of consolidation may be on the cards before the next big rally.
Watch the accompanying video for the entire discussion.