By Barbara Kollmeyer
Citigroup cast doubt on gold’s run in June
Citigroup not only sees gains for gold and silver continuing, but say copper and aluminum present the next opportunities in the metals space.
Gold was headed for a fresh record on Monday and silver hit a more than decade high, with Citigroup strategists predicting the rally for the precious metals to continue and carry other metals.
Gold (GC00) jumped $44.40, or 1.2%, to $3,750 an ounce early Monday, putting it on the path for a fresh closing high, potentially its 36th this year. The contract also set a new intraday high, reaching $3,753 an ounce, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Silver (SI00), meanwhile, rose over 2% to $43.86 an ounce, reaching an intraday level of $44.10, not seen since Aug. 2011. Investors are now watching to see if silver at long last reaches a new settlement high – the last was $48.70 an ounce, reached in January 1980.
Citigroup strategists told clients in a note that they are bullish on those precious metals, as well as two others.
“We see the gold and silver bull market broadening and eventually shifting into copper and aluminum during 2026, driven by the prospect of new dovish Fed leadership (by May/June 2026) and related lower U.S. real interest rates and downward pressure on the dollar,” wrote a team led by Maximilian Layton, global head of commodities.
Driving the upside will be cyclical factors – continued weak labor market, tariff-driven U.S. and global growth worries – and structural ones such as worries about U.S. debt and a weakening dollar.
“In addition, we see stimulus from the [One Big Beautiful Bill Act] reaching households and building capex investment momentum during 1H26, driving an improvement in U.S. and global growth and sentiment,” much like late 2007, early 2008,” they said.
Noting that “just about everything is going right for the gold bull market at the moment,” Layton and his team suggest buying any dips in gold prices, targeting $3,800 an ounce in the next three months, but seeing it peak in the first quarter of next year. Their bull case sees gold reaching $4,000 in the coming months in a scenario of stagflation and growing Fed independence concerns. A bear case projects prices to dip to $3,400, with the economy muddling through and geopolitical de-escalations.
As for aluminum, the strategists say they are “very bullish” over the next six to 36 months, saying any dips would represent “strong long-term buying opportunities.”
“Aluminum is heavily exposed to AI/datacenters, humanoid/other robots given competition for power from the same future-facing sectors, which are driving aluminum demand (aluminum supply is highly power intensive) and given China’s capacity cap,” said Layton and the team.
As for copper, they have a $12,000/ton base case for the next six to 12 months, marking 20% upside, and a bull case of $14,000/ton. “While we are neutral for 4Q25, copper is exposed to structural energy-transition and AI trends and is leveraged to a pickup in U.S. and global growth expectations from 2026, given dovish Fed prospects (especially from May 2026) and related lower U.S. real interest rates,” they said.
Citigroup warned in June that gold prices could be headed for a fall in 2026. In their latest forecasts, though, they have walked back some of that negativity.
In the first quarter they see gold at $3,700 an ounce from a previous $2,900 an ounce. By the fourth quarter of 2026, they see gold at $2,800 an ounce, slightly higher than the $2,600 they had predicted previously
-Barbara Kollmeyer
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09-22-25 0553ET
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