Pant highlighted copper’s central role in India’s growth story, noting that it is a “pervasive commodity” essential for building infrastructure and meeting energy transition goals. “India has been a fantastic long-term partner for BHP, and BHP has been a long-term partner for decades with India,” Pant said. BHP is already the largest supplier of copper concentrate to India, and the expected surge in demand underscores the critical role of the metal in India’s future, she added.
In addition to copper, India is a key market for BHP’s metallurgical coal. With India aiming to double its steel production capacity from 140 million tonnes by 2030, BHP is well-positioned to support the country’s ambitious goals. Pant noted that 40% of BHP’s metallurgical coal is supplied to India, reflecting the robust demand for steelmaking commodities.
Edited excerpts:
Q. Let me start by asking about the current demand environment for the commodities you track, such as coal and iron ore, especially in light of the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Chinese demand.
Pant: If I were to step back, some of the commodities are closely tied to global growth, which has been relatively strong. For instance, copper demand has been robust. Looking at the long term, we believe the drivers of copper demand will be amplified, not just by the traditional drivers like increased standards of living and higher urbanisation, but also by the need to rebuild energy systems. On top of that, the build-out of AI infrastructure, which is highly metal-intensive, will further fuel demand.
As for steel-making commodities, China, as you mentioned, has had an uneven story. However, it has still maintained steel production of around a billion tonnes for the sixth consecutive year. In terms of metallurgical coal, which is used in steelmaking, India’s steel production has risen to 140 million tonnes, up from 100 million tonnes just a couple of years ago. This increase means that metallurgical coal demand has remained strong.
Looking at the long-term outlook, I believe the commodities needed for global development, decarbonisation, and digitisation are on a very positive trajectory—indeed, at a scale we’ve never seen before.
Q. Given the fact that you continue to see robust demand while China remains patchy, what does the pricing environment look like? What is the pricing trajectory at this point?
Pant: Iron ore is likely to be in a balanced market. However, over time, we’ve been saying for a long while that, in the longer term, China’s steel demand will plateau, as has happened in almost every economy during its development phases. As that happens, for BHP—being the lowest-cost producer of iron ore in the world for the fourth consecutive year—it’s a fantastic position to be in. It will remain a very interesting and hugely attractive market for us.
Copper, on the other hand, is a very different story. Looking ahead to 2050, with the amplification due to decarbonisation and AI, we expect copper demand to grow by 70%. Just in the next 10 years, we’ll need an investment of a quarter of a trillion dollars in copper alone to keep pace with global demand. This presents a fantastic position for BHP, as we are either the largest or second-largest producer of copper, depending on the metric, and the largest holder of copper endowment in the world
Q: You spoke about the investment number that is required. What do you foresee in the near term in terms of additional incremental investments that you will need to make?
Pant: Copper is very attractive to us. We like it. We have a huge portfolio already. We have growth options and projects in Australia, Chile and the US and very recently we have gone into a joint venture in Argentina. That is a growth option where we will look to develop what is one of the most interesting and attractive copper discoveries of the last decade or so. Huge growth vector on copper within BHP. Along with that, we are also growing in potash which is a fertiliser commodity and that again has very attractive demand dynamics because of the increasing population. Rising growth of incomes means calorie values go up. And as the arable land gets very constrained, potash is needed. We’re looking to grow in potash as well with a real secular demand trajectory from here on.
Q: How is India shaping up in terms of strategic interest as far as BHP is concerned? The demand, you gave us a very quick glimpse into what demand is shaping up like, but how do you see India in terms of its role and relevance for you strategically over the next five to 10 years?
Pant: India has been a fantastic long-term partner for BHP and the company has been a long-term partner for decades with India. Traditionally, it has been steel-making coal. Forty percent of our metallurgical coal goes to India. And as India continues to look at increasing its steelmaking capacity from 140 million tonnes today to doubling it potentially by 2030 and then way beyond, we will continue to grow and service India for that requirement.
Another one is copper. As the country is yet to be built, if I can say that way, that is the exciting part. Growth is only a one-way trajectory. With infrastructure yet to be done, copper is the pervasive commodity needed. And right now, we are already the largest supplier of copper concentrate to India. We see by our estimates that demand is growing by 5X by 2050. We are also partnering with lots of our customers in India as steel-making partners, for example, around low-carbon emission technology. Whether it is for the growth or for decarbonisation aspirations of India, I think BHP and India will continue to have a very symbiotic and strategic relationship.
Watch the video for more