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The price of copper is likely to set new records this year at $12,000 or more a tonne, according to several of the world’s largest trading houses, lifted by growing global demand and the threat of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.
Trading houses Mercuria and Trafigura and hedge fund Frontier Commodities said at the Financial Times’ Commodities Summit in Lausanne on Tuesday that they expected the price on the London Metal Exchange to move sharply higher this year.
The London copper price hit a record of almost $11,000 in May 2024. After falling back late last year, it has risen in 2025 and was trading at about $10,000 on Tuesday.
“I think we’ll see higher than $12,000,” said Kostas Bintas, global head of metals and minerals at Mercuria. The copper market was “experiencing tightness”, he added.
Bintas said huge US imports of copper had reshaped the market, which is normally dominated by Chinese demand. He estimates that about 400,000 to 500,000 tonnes of copper is at present on its way to the US.
Traders have rushed to import copper into the US ahead of the potential imposition of tariffs on the metal following an investigation that Trump has instigated into “the threat to national security from imports of copper”.
The threat of US tariffs has driven a widening gap between the London and New York prices for the metal. This spread had risen on Tuesday to more than $1,350 a tonne.
Levies of 25 per cent have already been introduced on all US aluminium and steel imports.
Demand for copper should also expand as a result of developed economies such as the US and EU needing to upgrade their electricity grids, said traders.
This investment would require huge amounts of the metal, said Aline Carnizelo, managing partner at Frontier Commodities, who also believes copper could test $12,000.
Copper is used in a wide variety of industries, including technology, construction and renewable energy, and is key for electrical wiring and power grids.
Graeme Train, head of metals and minerals analysis at Trafigura, said copper could hit a new high but cautioned that the global economy was “a little fragile” and that some uncertainty remained in the market about whether the US would impose tariffs on copper.
Nevertheless, US metal buyers continue to seek out copper, since “there is not a quick solution” to increasing domestic supplies, he added.
Copper stocks in Comex warehouses in the US rose to close to their highest level in February since 2019. Copper in those facilities is stored on a so-called duty paid basis, meaning any taxes and levies on the metal must have been settled. As a result, it would not be hit with additional tariffs.
The volume of copper waiting to leave the LME network of warehouses is also close to a four-year high.
Meanwhile, commodities exchange ICE Futures Europe said on Tuesday that it planned to launch futures contracts for key battery metals this year. The group will launch eight new index settled, monthly contracts covering lithium carbonate, hydroxide, spodumene and cobalt.
ICE Futures Europe president Chris Rhodes told the FT’s Commodities Summit that the development of a liquid secondary market was important for the “bankability” — or ease of financing — of cobalt and lithium projects, with the prices of both metals having been hit by oversupply.
“Often what you hear from end users is, ‘I’ll be able to do more physical deals if I have a hedge contract,’” he said.
In October last year, rival CME Group, which also competes with the LME, launched futures on spodumene, while it also has a cobalt contract.