US President Donald Trump has set a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports. The tariffs will apply to all US imports of steel and aluminium, including from the country’s biggest suppliers of both metals, Canada and Mexico. The duties will also include finished metal products. The new rates will go into effect on March 12. Trump said the new duties are meant to crack down on the efforts of countries like Russia and China to circumvent existing duties, bolster domestic production and bring more jobs back to the US. However, previous tariffs did not lead to increased domestic aluminium production. In 2024, the output of the US steel industry was 1% lower than it had been in 2017 before the introduction of the first round of tariffs by Trump, while the aluminium industry produced almost 10% less.
Trump’s move comes on top of new 10% tariffs on goods from China. The President has also expanded the tariffs introduced in 2018, which former US President Joe Biden largely kept in place. Exemptions for major suppliers including Canada, Mexico, Brazil and the EU are now removed and the rate of aluminium imports has been raised from 10% to 25%.
The US imports substantial amounts of aluminium and steel from Canada. Approximately half of the US’s aluminium requirements are sourced internationally, with Canada being the largest supplier, contributing 58% of these imports. The United Arab Emirates follows, providing 6%, according to US government data. The US also relies on Mexico and Canada for around 90% of its aluminium scrap imports. Meanwhile, around 23% of steel imports into the US arrive from Canada, followed by Brazil at 16%, Mexico at 12% and South Korea at 10%.
Aluminium is likely to be most impacted by potential tariffs on metals with the US importing significant volumes of its aluminium from abroad. Tariffs would result in higher aluminium prices in the US, representing a significant upside risk to the US Midwest premium this year. However, the effects on LME prices will be minimal. US tariffs previously had little impact on LME prices. Tariffs also risk demand destruction in the US as the extra costs would most likely be passed on to end consumers.
The prospect of a global trade war is bearish for the LME aluminium price. Tariffs are bearish for industrial metals in terms of slowing global growth and keeping inflation higher for longer. Read our detailed analysis of the new tariffs here.