Bitcoin is trading at $77,129.12, up 22.8% over the past week, as former Coinbase Head of Institutional Research David Duong said he now expects the token to cross $100,000 before the end of the year.
Speaking on the Milk Road Show, Duong said his outlook has moved higher in recent weeks. He said he had previously expected Bitcoin to consolidate around the $85,000 to $90,000 range, an area where trading volume had concentrated for a period, but said a closer read of the macro environment pushed his forecast into six-figure territory.
Why Duong Sees a Stronger Setup Into Q4
Duong pointed to a structural shift in who is buying Bitcoin. He said the investor base has moved away from being predominantly retail-driven toward exchange-traded fund flows, partly due to lower costs and reduced custody concerns following a recent self-custody security incident.
He said these flows can outweigh the traditional interest rate narrative for extended stretches, and expects that dynamic to strengthen heading into the end of the third quarter and start of the fourth.
Clarity Act as a Wildcard
The Senate procedural vote on the Clarity Act, rescheduled for September 15, was also raised as a potential catalyst. Duong said the market is pricing roughly 20% odds of the bill passing, calling the setup “one-sided.”
He said a surprise passage could act as a significant positive catalyst, while a failure to pass would likely have limited market impact given how low expectations already are. He added that regulatory progress does not depend solely on the bill, pointing to ongoing rulemaking efforts at both the CFTC and SEC as supportive factors regardless of the vote’s outcome.
Technical Confirmation Still Pending
Duong said a sustained move by Bitcoin above its recent range highs, in the $65,000 to $70,000 area, on stronger trading volume would serve as technical confirmation of a new trading regime, separate from any single calendar date. He described his overall timing view as driven more by capital flows and macro conditions than by any fixed event.
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