Bitcoin has been hovering around $90,000 this week after a volatile month that saw the asset rally from lows near $84,000 to just over $94,000, before retracing modestly to around $89,000 this morning.
The recent price action has reignited a familiar debate across the market: Is Bitcoin setting up for another leg of the bull market in 2026 – or has the cycle already rolled over into a prolonged bear phase?
After months of drawdowns and uncertainty, sentiment appears to be stabilizing, even as conviction remains split.
From Sell-Off To Stabilization
Bitcoin’s rebound follows a bruising fourth-quarter correction that erased more than 30% from its October highs above $126,000. Forced liquidations, long-term holder distribution, and macro uncertainty weighed heavily on price through November and December.
Despite closing 2025 with three consecutive monthly declines – a historically rare occurrence – several analysts now argue the worst of the sell-off may be behind the market.
“We believe with reasonable confidence that Bitcoin and broader digital asset markets have bottomed,” Bernstein analysts wrote in a recent note, pointing to late-November lows near $80,000 as the likely trough.
Importantly, Bernstein pushed back against the idea that Bitcoin has already peaked within a traditional four-year cycle, arguing that institutional participation has fundamentally altered market dynamics.
A Market No Longer Driven By Cycles Alone
According to Bernstein, the growing influence of institutions, ETFs, and regulated financial infrastructure weakens the relevance of prior cycle-based frameworks that were largely driven by retail speculation.
Instead, analysts point to structural tailwinds – including tokenization, capital markets integration, and balance-sheet adoption – as factors that could extend the current cycle well into 2026 and beyond.
Bernstein reiterated long-term price targets of $150,000 in 2026 and $200,000 in 2027, even as it acknowledged the possibility of volatility and drawdowns in the near term.
Other firms echoed cautious optimism. 10X Research noted that Bitcoin has entered a more constructive technical regime after weeks of range-bound trading, while Fundstrat highlighted improving liquidity conditions as supportive for risk assets.
“There is a good opportunity for a tactical rally,” Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell said, while cautioning that the first half of the year could still include periods of downside pressure before a stronger advance later in 2026.
Key Technical Levels To Watch
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin recently closed near $91,500, just above short-term resistance around $91,400. Holding that level keeps the door open for another test of $94,000, a ceiling that has capped upside since mid-November.
A sustained breakout could shift focus toward $98,000, with heavier resistance extending into the $103,500–$109,000 range.
On the downside, traders are watching support near $87,000, followed by a broader demand zone between $84,000 and $72,000 should selling pressure re-emerge.
Market sentiment has shifted from outright bearishness to more neutral territory as price volatility compresses.
Turning The Debate Into A Market
As analysts, traders, and investors debate whether Bitcoin’s bull market has more room to run, prediction markets offer a different lens – one where sentiment is expressed through capital rather than commentary.
On Duelbits Predict, users can speculate directly on long-term bitcoin price predictions, including the question at the center of today’s market discussion:
Will Bitcoin hit $150,000 before January 1, 2027?
Current odds on Duelbits Predict imply skepticism:
Rather than relying solely on analyst forecasts, these markets aggregate expectations across participants, translating conviction – or doubt – into real-time probabilities.
Why These Markets Matter
Bitcoin has always been a forward-looking asset. Questions about price, adoption, institutional participation, and macro alignment shape narratives months – or years – before outcomes materialize.
Prediction markets make those expectations explicit.
As Bitcoin matures into a global macro asset, platforms like Duelbits Predict offer a way to track how the market is positioning itself – not just what it’s saying.
For now, Bitcoin sits at a crossroads. Whether the recent rebound marks the start of another sustained advance or simply a pause within a broader correction remains uncertain.
But one thing is clear: the future of Bitcoin is being priced – and traded – in real time.