Fed Governor Waller just gave crypto traders a reason to cheer, but XRP faces a Senate vote and a rate decision landing one day apart, and only one outcome removes both obstacles holding it back from Bitcoin’s gains.
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The XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) price trades at $1.45, up about 5% over the past week and 37% over the past month, after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that he would support holding rates steady this month. Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) cleared $81,000 in the same session, and the XRP price moved with it.
Waller’s exact words were “give disinflation a chance,” and he added that the Fed “can wait one meeting.” Markets had priced a 67% chance of a hike on September 16 before he spoke, and that fell to 55% by the close.
However, XRP has spent the year trailing Bitcoin, down 48% over twelve months against Bitcoin’s 27%. So would the XRP price follow Bitcoin if the Fed pauses, or would it wait for the CLARITY Act vote on September 15?
What Waller Said and Why It Lifted XRP
The XRP price rose on one number in Waller’s speech. Three-month core inflation fell from 4.76% in February to 3.05% through July, which he read as disinflation taking hold, and he said hiking a quarter point now would not bring CPI to 2% any faster. However, he would only support a hold if the inflation data confirms the trend, and CPI and PPI both come out next week.
A rate hike would have made Treasury bills pay more, and a coin that pays nothing has to fall until it looks cheap enough to compete. When a Fed governor says the hike may not come, that pressure lifts. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.75% on Thursday, the S&P 500 gained more than 1%, and XRP moved with them.
Moreover, Waller’s comments put him at odds with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who has pushed for another hike since his Jackson Hole speech in August. The federal funds rate stands at 3.50% to 3.75%, and markets had spent the past month bracing for it to go higher on September 16.
Why XRP Moves Further Than Bitcoin
The XRP price gained 37% over the past month against Bitcoin’s 26%, and it has moved further than Bitcoin in both directions all year. XRP’s market cap is $87 billion against Bitcoin’s $1.6 trillion, so the same money moving in or out moves XRP’s price more.
Bitcoin also has buyers XRP does not. Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $3.52 billion across August, and a fund manager can add exposure through a listed product without touching a wallet. Those buyers tend to hold through a pullback. XRP’s spot ETFs took in $1.66 billion since launching last November, and the coin’s regulatory status in the U.S. is still unsettled, so its buyers on a day like Thursday are most likely traders positioning ahead of September 15.
That difference helps explain why XRP is down 48% over twelve months while Bitcoin is down 27%. Bitcoin had institutional buyers taking the other side through the sell-offs. XRP had traders who left when the news that brought them faded.
The Fed and the Senate Decide One Day Apart
The XRP price now gets two verdicts in the same 48 hours. The Senate votes on September 15 on whether to advance the CLARITY Act, the bill that would settle whether XRP falls under the SEC or the CFTC. That vote is on cloture, the procedural step that ends debate, and it needs 60 senators. The Fed is then due to announce its rate decision on September 16.
Cloture passing would give XRP the regulatory clarity Bitcoin already has, which is the thing that has kept institutional buyers out. A Fed hold the next day would keep the rate pressure off. Together, they would remove the two things that have held XRP back all year.
However, if cloture fails and the Fed holds, Bitcoin would keep its rate tailwind and XRP would be left with a bill that has no date attached, which is where it was in early August when the price fell below $1. If cloture passes and the Fed hikes, XRP would get its catalyst and the whole market would lose one inside 24 hours.
Would XRP Follow Bitcoin or Wait for CLARITY?
XRP could follow Bitcoin through next week, since Waller’s comments cut the odds of a hike and no data arrives until CPI to change them. That would hold the XRP price near $1.45 into September 15.
After that, the Senate would decide. A cloture win could let XRP keep whatever Bitcoin gives it and add a catalyst of its own, and the price could push toward $1.70, where it stalled in August. A cloture loss would leave XRP trading on Bitcoin’s rate outlook alone, which is how it fell 48% over the past year while Bitcoin fell 27%.
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