Bitcoin Price Weekly Outlook
I feel like a broken record saying this, but it bears repeating: Wow, what a difference a week makes! Bitcoin pulled back a little as expected early last week, but then the bears came in with a sucker punch on Friday morning as Trump’s talk of raising tariffs on China sent markets crashing down.
Things escalated quickly after liquidity dried up in the afternoon to send bitcoin down to a low of $105,617 on the index price. The price action was a bit chaotic as some leveraged exchanges went as low as $102,000 and even $100,000. After the carnage was done, bitcoin had a nice bounce back up to close the week out at $115,128. The bears are still firmly in control, however, as long as the price remains below $118,350.
Key Support and Resistance Levels Now
The price dove deep down through all the more recent support levels last Friday, but the $105,000 support level managed to prove itself, propping up the price for the time being. Bulls will now look for this low to hold, but if it is lost, we would look down once again to the $96,000 level for support. Closing below there should certainly put an end to this bull market for the foreseeable future.
We can draw a Fibonacci Retracement from the $126,219 high down to the $105,617 low, opening up a wide range of price action. The bulls can start to retake resistance levels above the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement at $118,350, with new highs expected if bulls can close a couple of days above the 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement at $121,800.
Outlook For This Week
A big bounce after such a steep sell-off was to be expected, and we got that into the weekly close. So it’s hard to know what to expect going into this week. Oscillators on the daily chart are still biased bearish, but not overly so, so bulls still have a chance to save face here. Over the next few days, bulls will want to avoid closing any days below the 0.236 Fibonacci Retracement at $110,500 as that opens up the $105,000 low once again.
On the flip side, bears will look to keep the price below the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement resistance at $118,350. Getting above here flips bias back to the bulls over the short term, but they have an uphill battle to do it. We have a neutral zone between $112,000 and $118,350, with $115,630 being the divider for bullish and bearish bias within this zone. So we may see bitcoin remain stuck in this zone over the next few days.
Market mood: Bearish – After an epic dump on Friday, the bulls have been left stunned. Even the bears didn’t know they could hit that hard. While price made big gains to close the week out well above the low, the bulls still have more work to do to regain control of this price action.
The next few weeks
Interestingly, the low price last Friday hit the lower trend line of the broadening wedge pattern on the daily chart. It is still possible that price heads all the way back up to the upper trend line of this pattern once again. However, we must still be cognizant of the fact that this broadening wedge pattern could break down as well, forming a long-term top in the market.
The bulls do not want to see any daily closes below that lower trend line, as it would signal a breakdown that would likely drop into the low $80,000 range as a minimum. Getting back to the upper trend line of the broadening wedge (around $127,000) would have bulls looking for the bullish breakout of this pattern once again.
The bulls will be walking on eggshells over the coming weeks. They don’t want to see any price action close to $105,000 again, and will be hard-pressed to push the price back above $122,000.
Terminology Guide:
Bulls/Bullish: Buyers or investors expecting the price to go higher.
Bears/Bearish: Sellers or investors expecting the price to go lower.
Support or support level: A level at which the price should hold for the asset, at least initially. The more touches on support, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold the price.
Resistance or resistance level: Opposite of support. The level that is likely to reject the price, at least initially. The more touches at resistance, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold back the price.
Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions: Ratios based on what is known as the golden ratio, a universal ratio pertaining to growth and decay cycles in nature. The golden ratio is based on the constants Phi (1.618) and phi (0.618).
Broadening Wedge: A chart pattern consisting of an upper trend line acting as resistance and a lower trend line acting as support. These trend lines must diverge away from each other in order to validate the pattern. This pattern is a result of expanding price volatility, typically resulting in higher highs and lower lows.
Oscillators: Technical indicators that vary over time, but typically remain within a band between set levels. Thus, they oscillate between a low level (typically representing oversold conditions) and a high level (typically representing overbought conditions). E.G., Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD).