Bitcoin and crypto prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks, triggering fears a bitcoin price crash nightmare could be about to come true.
Sign up now for CryptoCodex—A free crypto newsletter that will get you ahead of the market
The bitcoin price, down almost 40% from its all-time high of $126,000 per bitcoin reached in early October, has plummeted to just over $80,000—driven by a stark Federal Reserve warning.
Now, as traders brace for a $1 trillion crypto market earthquake, analysts with Wall Street giant JPMorgan have sounded the alarm over a looming threat to bitcoin-buying behemoth Strategy—forcing the company’s founder to issue an urgent response.
Sign up now for the free CryptoCodex—A daily five-minute newsletter for traders, investors and the crypto-curious that will get you up to date and keep you ahead of the bitcoin and crypto market bull run
Strategy founder Michael Saylor has issued an urgent response to JPMorgan’s warning the bitcoin-buying company could face a 2026 test that would likely weigh on the bitcoin price.
© 2023 Bloomberg Finance LP
Strategy could see about $2.8 billion in outflows if the MSCI index removes the company from its equity indices, and another $8.8 billion if other index providers follow suit, according to JPMorgan analysts.
“If MicroStrategy is excluded from these indices, it could face considerable pressure to its valuation given that passive index-tracking funds represent a substantial share of its ownership,” JPMorgan’s researchers led by Nikolas Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note seen by Coindesk.
Strategy, the bitcoin-buying company formerly known as MicroStrategy and led by Michael Saylor, has seen its share price collapse by around 60% over the last six months, erasing its entire “Trump pump” that catapulted it higher following the reelection of U.S. president Donald Trump in November last year.
“Strategy, the renamed MicroStrategy and the largest public holder of bitcoin, is now highly vulnerable as the digital asset sell-off erases over $1 trillion from market value and raises the risk of its removal from major stock indices, potentially triggering anything between $3 billion to $9 billion of passive outflows,” analysts with Tagus Capital wrote in an emailed note.
Part of Strategy’s success was its addition to major indices such as the Nasdaq-100, MSCI USA, and MSCI World, which helped funnel passive funds that track these indices into Strategy stock.
Of Strategy’s near-$60 billion market capitalization, almost $10 billion sits in passive vehicles, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds that track these indices, Coindesk reported the analysts said.
MSCI said last month it is consulting on a proposal to exclude companies whose primary activity is bitcoin or other digital asset treasury management if those holdings represent 50% or more of total assets.
Sign up now for CryptoCodex—A free crypto newsletter that will get you ahead of the market
The bitcoin price has fallen sharply from its October peak of $126,000 per bitcoin, sparking fears of a 2026 bitcoin price and crypto crash.
Forbes Digital Assets
“The company, long reliant on issuing equity to buy more bitcoin, has seen its once-substantial valuation premium (i.e., mNAV) collapse, leaving its market cap effectively tied to its digital asset holdings,” Tagus Capital researchers wrote.
“MSCI is weighing new rules that could exclude firms whose digital assets exceed half their total assets, while Strategy’s share price, preferred funding instruments, and bond yields all show mounting stress—making future capital raising harder and threatening the momentum that has fueled Strategy’s approach since 2020.”
Any changes would take effect as part of the February 2026 index review. The consultation is running until the end of the year, with a decision being published on January 15.
In response, Saylor posted to X that “Strategy is not a fund, not a trust, and not a holding company,” adding: “We’re a publicly traded operating company with a $500 million software business and a unique treasury strategy that uses Bitcoin as productive capital.”
This year, Strategy, which sells business analytics software alongside holding huge amounts of bitcoin, has ramped up its fund raising activities to fuel its bitcoin acquisition spree, creating what Saylor has described as a bitcoin-backed structured finance company—something that could become a problem for Strategy’s Nasdaq 100 inclusion, which usually excludes finance companies.
“Our team is building a new kind of enterprise—a bitcoin-backed structured finance company with the ability to innovate in both capital markets and software,” Saylor wrote.
“No passive vehicle or holding company could do what we’re doing. Index classification doesn’t define us. Our strategy is long-term, our conviction in bitcoin is unwavering, and our mission remains unchanged: to build the world’s first digital monetary institution on a foundation of sound money and financial innovation.”