Bitcoin (BTC-USD) had its best week in more than three yearsas stocks fell. Scott Bessent helped light the match.
The cryptocurrency surged roughly 23% this week, blowing through a months-long trading range as gold (GC=F) jumped about 5% and the dollar (DX-Y.NYB) fell. The S&P 500 (^GSPC), meanwhile, lost ground.
That combination got especially interesting on Wednesday, when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cried uncle on the bond market and doubled the size of planned buybacks for some longer-dated Treasurys.
The 30-year yield (^TYX) promptly dropped 9 basis points as bitcoin jumped 7% and gold rallied 4%.
Then came the fun part.
By Friday, the 30-year yield had clawed back almost its entire Wednesday drop. Bitcoin had surged more than 10%, while gold tacked on another 2%.
Bessent knocked long-term yields lower. The bond market took almost all of it back. Bitcoin and gold didn’t.
Coinage founder Zack Guzman said Friday on Yahoo Finance’s Morning Brief that bitcoin has “established itself as a bit of a debasement trade.”
“When you’re talking about the government getting involved here to kind of control things, eventually that money flows to assets like Bitcoin,” Guzman said.
History makes this week look even stranger.
There have been six previous weeks since 2015 when bitcoin gained more than 15% while stocks fell, gold rose, and the dollar declined.
Bitcoin’s prior big weekly rallies came with falling rates.
|
Week ended |
Bitcoin |
S&P 500 |
Gold |
Dollar |
30-year yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
June 17, 2016 |
+30% |
-1.2% |
+1.9% |
-0.4% |
-3 bp |
|
August 11, 2017 |
+27% |
-1.4% |
+2.4% |
-0.5% |
-6 bp |
|
November 17, 2017 |
+17% |
-0.1% |
+1.4% |
-0.8% |
-10 bp |
|
December 21, 2018 |
+22% |
-7.1% |
+1.4% |
-0.5% |
-11 bp |
|
June 28, 2019 |
+23% |
-0.3% |
+0.7% |
-0.1% |
-6 bp |
|
July 30, 2021 |
+25% |
-0.4% |
+0.7% |
-0.8% |
-2 bp |
|
August 21, 2026 |
+23% |
-1.4% |
+5.2% |
-0.8% |
+1 bp |
Every previous episode came with falling 30-year Treasury yields.
Not this one.
Widen the lens, and the move looks even more unusual. There were 24 previous weeks when stocks fell, gold rose, the dollar declined, and the 30-year yield rose. Bitcoin’s median gain was only about 2%, while the previous best was about 14%.
This week’s roughly 23% surge blows through that record.
Bitcoin bulls have spent years calling it digital gold. This week, for once, the market behaved that way.
Its 20-day correlation with the S&P 500 collapsed from roughly 0.43 last Friday to nearly zero, while its correlation with gold climbed above 0.5. Over a full year, bitcoin still behaves more like stocks than gold, so one week does not rewrite the rulebook.
But it was one of the strongest “digital gold” weeks bitcoin has ever produced.
Big bitcoin weeks have also tended to keep running.
|
After a >15% BTC week [<15% is unfriendly] |
Median return |
Positive |
|---|---|---|
|
1 week |
+4.6% |
78% |
|
1 month |
+8.1% |
70% |
|
3 months |
+6.0% |
68% |
|
6 months |
+21.6% |
63% |
|
1 year |
+52.5% |
65% |
Seasonality throws in a wrinkle. August has produced a median loss of roughly 8% since 2015, and only three of the prior 11 were positive.
The only two previous double-digit August rallies came in 2017 and 2021. Both were followed by September declines of roughly 7% — and then October rallies of 49% and 40%. Two examples are hardly a forecast, but the pattern is worth keeping in mind.
Guzman sees another reason the bitcoin rally may have legs. He said the move has been driven mostly by buyers purchasing bitcoin outright, rather than traders piling into leveraged bets.
“This explosion is not driven by leverage,” he said. “It’s mostly spot driven.”
Jared Blikre is the global markets and data editor for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @SPYJared or email him at jaredblikre@yahooinc.com.
Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices
Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance