10/05 update below. This post was originally published on October 04
Bitcoin has returned to its all-time high of $124,000 per bitcoin this week while stock markets and crypto have also surged as traders brace for a 2026 Wall Street bombshell.
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The bitcoin price, which has doubled over the last 12 months, is battling with gold for title of the best performing asset of 2025—as a Federal Reserve bitcoin and gold game-changer is seen hurtling toward markets.
Now, as JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon issues a stark warning, U.S. president Donald Trump has floated the idea of a $2,000 Covid stimulus check-style tariff dividend that could trigger a bitcoin price, crypto and stock market surge—and also drive further fears of U.S. dollar collapse.
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U.S. president Donald Trump has proposed issuing a $2,000 tariff “dividend” check to Americans that has been predicted to drive up the bitcoin price, crypto and stock markets as the 2020 Covid stimulus checks did.
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“We suspect that Trump’s announcement of potentially considering a stimulus check for every citizen, funded by tariffs, could also contribute to a further rise in bitcoin’s price,” analysts with the Bitfinex bitcoin and crypto exchange said in emailed comments. “This could mirror what we witnessed following the Covid stimulus checks.”
10/05 update: The bitcoin price has surged past $125,000 per bitcoin, climbing as traders bet on a “perfect storm” of factors from the Federal Reserve accelerating its interest rate cutting cycle, the U.S. government shutdown, and continued embrace from Wall Street via the wildly popular bitcoin and crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
“Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs today reflects a perfect storm of factors driving demand higher,” David Siemer, the chief executive of Wave Digital Assets, said in emailed comments.
“ETF inflows continue to be a massive catalyst, pulling in fresh institutional capital at an unprecedented pace. At the same time, the Fed’s pivot toward rate cuts has weakened the dollar and boosted risk appetite across the board, with crypto benefiting disproportionately. Add to macro uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government shutdown, and you’ve got an environment where even modest demand creates outsized moves.”
While many in the world of bitcoin and crypto remain highly bullish, some feel this latest rally could be short-lived.
“We have seen gold rally over the past months, supported by buying from nation-states and institutions,” Alex Blume, the chief executive of institutional investment advisor Two Prime, said in via email.
“Bitcoin historically follows a few months afterwards. This current move in bitcoin is right in line with this timing. Within the bitcoin ecosystem, many investors know that Q4 is typically the best-returning quarter for the asset. This expectation alone can drive speculation and move the price up. In line with this, we have seen perpetual futures fund rates move up to as high as 13% after a long period of breakeven expense. This does suggest that leveraged trading and not spot demand is at least partially driving this move. To say it another way, this is a precarious rally that may not sustain itself.”
Since the 2020-21 Covid-era bitcoin price rally, the bitcoin and crypto market has matured, with stock market exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and regulatory clarity helping to make the technology more accessible.
“In 2020, crypto’s institutional rails were barely in place: No spot ETFs, fragmented custody, regulatory ambiguity,” Jasper De Maere, a strategist at bitcoin and crypto market maker Wintermute, wrote in a September noted posted to LinkedIn, adding that “retail-led rallies fueled by stimulus checks and [ultra high-net worth individual] cash … allowed rapid cascades” to hit the bitcoin price and wider crypto market.
Meanwhile, a 2023 research paper from Harvard Kennedy School found stimulus payments increased bitcoin and crypto investing, with the bitcoin price surge this week potentially attracting further interest.
“Bitcoin has surged more than 13% in the past week, showing strong momentum with steady higher highs and limited pullbacks,” Jake Kennis, senior research analyst at Nansen, said via email, pointing to momentum being driven by institutional demand through bitcoin ETFs.
“Prices are now approaching a new all-time high, which could trigger renewed institutional flows and retail interest. The setup looks constructive for a fresh bitcoin all-time high, but confirmation will require sustained volume and follow-through above the former all-time high level to avoid a false breakout.”
This week, Trump said he’s weighing the idea of giving out checks of up to $2,000 in rebates derived from the revenues his tariff agenda has generated.
“We’re thinking maybe $1,000 to $2,000, it would be great,” Trump told One America News Network, adding his “number one” priority is “paying down debt, because people have allowed the debt to go crazy.”
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The bitcoin price has surged higher this year, with many predicting it will continue to climb as bitcoin, crypto and stock markets notch fresh highs.
Forbes Digital Assets
The U.S. debt pile has surged to almost $38 trillion this year, as a combination of huge Covid-era spending and higher interest rates contribute to what some fear could become a “crisis” for the U.S. dollar.
Trump’s controversial global trade tariffs, which are facing legal challenges, earned the U.S. around $150 billion in the fiscal year that ended in September, according to Treasury Department data.
However, Trump said he expects tariffs to bring in over $1 trillion every year.
“They’re just starting to kick in,” Trump told OANN, “but ultimately, your tariffs are going to be over $1 trillion a year.”