Bitcoin fell to a one-month low amid concerns about a US-Iran war and ETF outflows. The asset fell to $74,000 in Singapore trading on Thursday, its lowest since April 13. The second-largest cryptocurrency, ETH, fell more than 4% to $1,960, its lowest in nearly two months.
The crypto market lost about 3.5%, falling to a market capitalization of $2.44 trillion, sharply breaking through the local support of recent weeks. Technically, this is a worrying sign that could herald further sell-offs and a drop in market capitalization below $2.3 trillion. Cryptocurrency spot ETFs have seen outflows for the second week in a row, in contrast to positive inflows over the previous six weeks. Over the past week, outflows totaled more than $1.3 billion.
The negative external economic and geopolitical backdrop prevented Bitcoin from gaining a foothold above $80,000. The largest cryptocurrency has been declining all of last week and is currently near the 50-day moving average support zone and several local support levels.
Additional pressure on the market is being exerted by the still-high cost of Bitcoin mining, which currently exceeds its market value by more than 10%. This is forcing mining companies to reduce their reserves and sell all mined coins to fund operations.
The cryptocurrency market will remain under pressure due to rising inflation and mining company sales, which are preventing Bitcoin from gaining a foothold above $80,000 and breaking its downward trend. At the same time, active buying by large holders and corporate players is preventing Bitcoin from falling below $70,000. Analysts note continued pressure from oil and inflation expectations on cryptocurrency prices. For example, Ivan Patriki, Co-founder of market analysis platform QuantMap, notes that the main factor influencing Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory is the expectation that political noise in the coming days will be disguised as diplomatic progress. The analyst added:
“The ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is keeping oil prices high, delaying the Federal Reserve’s decision on rapid rate cuts. In this scenario, Bitcoin will find it more difficult to consolidate above key psychological levels, as high oil prices once again make the macroeconomic environment the primary filter for all risky assets.”
Patriki also notes that the marketing bubble surrounding the Strait of Hormuz adds additional pressure on the potential crypto market rebound:
“Investors are waiting for a catchy headline about the opening of the Strait or an agreement between the US and Iran that will revive the market and offer new hope. At the same time, many traders have stopped reacting to Trump’s statements, which are not followed by concrete actions.”
Despite this pressure, the largest corporate holders not only continue to increase their crypto reserves but also increase their purchase volumes. Bitcoin accumulator Strategy increased its position by almost 25,000 BTC, bringing its total volume to 843,737 BTC. Excluding the 34,000 BTC purchase in April 2026, this purchase was the largest in the last two years.
For Bitcoin to sustain its upward trend, positive news about a possible de-escalation is no longer enough, Patriki believes.
“Even if positive news on the negotiations can give Bitcoin a short-term boost, it won’t necessarily mean a sustained rally if oil remains above $95. A rapid de-escalation and a real restoration of the Hormuz movement could relieve some inflationary pressure. Still, if the market receives another round of zero-value statements and makes no progress, BTC will likely remain hostage to oil, the dollar, and rate expectations.”
Negative dynamics are also observed in US exchange-traded funds (ETFs). On May 27, total capital outflows from BTC ETFs and ETH ETFs amounted to $730 million and $67 million, respectively. For BTC-based funds, yesterday was part of a continuous series of trading days with capital outflows: total outflows have amounted to more than $2.6 billion since May 15. For Ethereum, the continuous outflow series began on May 11, and the cumulative capital outflow is $570 million.