00:00 Speaker A
Well, Bitcoin is pulling back from recent record highs, hovering just below $115,000 this morning. Polymarket, by the way, pricing in a 53% chance that Bitcoin dips below $100,000 by the end of the year. My next guest says, this could be a combination of risk off sentiment and seasonality, potentially weighing on crypto. Joining me now, Stephen McClerg, Canary Capital founder and CEO. He’s joining me in the studio. Good to see you.
00:23 Stephen McClerg
Good to see you, Julie.
00:24 Speaker A
So what do you think, below 100,000 by the end of the year?
00:28 Stephen McClerg
I think it’s entirely possible. Uh we have a lot of great tailwinds that’s pushing Bitcoin up, probably to about 140, 150,000. But it’s highly possible that we see Bitcoin below 100,000 at some point, uh if not now, as in the next 30 days, or by the end of the year.
00:49 Speaker A
What is driving Bitcoin at this point, right? Because all this year, the narrative in the first half of the year was really all around regulation, loosening, people coming into the market, institutional adoption continuing. Now all that stuff is kind of behind us. So now what?
01:08 Stephen McClerg
Exactly.
01:09 Stephen McClerg
Well, I mean look, if you think about it, a year ago, Bitcoin was in $40,000 range. So the fact that it’s gone so high, so fast, 3X in the last year, uh is quite significant. So there is a bit of reversion of the mean here.
01:28 Speaker A
Got you. Okay. And the other thing that I find interesting about Bitcoin is, you know, in the earlier days, I guess, it was seen as sort of this thing that didn’t correlate to anything. But now it seems like it is sort of a risk on asset to some degree, right? And so we’ve seen some money coming out of it recently. So how should investors be thinking about it in that way and where it belongs in the portfolio?
02:03 Stephen McClerg
Sure. Well, when I was in traditional finance before people were heavily invested in things like cryptocurrencies, we looked at what correlated to inflation. And a lot of people look at things like tips or gold. And the reality is is gold isn’t very well correlated to inflation. Uh tips aren’t well correlated either. Equities are actually the best correlation to inflation. So if you expect inflation, uh it’s a great time to buy equities. Uh cryptocurrencies have fallen to that category as well as a risk asset. So not only uh as a risk asset is it following equities in some in some areas, it also closely follows global M2 supply. And we see a very strong correlation between Bitcoin and global M2 sup- and global M2 monetary supply.