Bitcoin has been on a rollercoaster for the last eighteen months.
In October 2024, the digital currency began to rise on hopes that Trump would be friendlier than the Biden administration, and by the end of January 2025, it had increased in value by 75%.
Despite an eye-watering drop after Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025, Bitcoin continued to climb until October 5th, when it reached its all-time high of $126,297.63.
Since the beginning of 2026, however, the Bitcoin balloon has steadily lost air, prompting some crypto investors to worry about the onset of a new “crypto winter,” which in the past has lasted months or years as the price runs in a narrow trading range.
From its October high, Bitcoin prices fell consistently until it reached its most recent low-water mark on February 6th at $60,000.01.
That’s more than a 50% drop in just four months.
But in recent weeks, Bitcoin has had some upward momentum, prompting investors to ask whether now might be the time to get back in the game.
Bitcoin investment outlook 2026: Bull vs. bear case
| Stance | Primary Argument | Supporting Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Bull Case | Institutional Adoption | New ETF filings from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. |
| Bull Case | Digital Scarcity | Hard cap of 21 million coins and regular “halving” events. |
| Bear Case | Extreme Volatility | Bitcoin is roughly 5x more volatile than the S&P 500. |
| Bear Case | Opportunity Cost | Lack of interest/dividends compared to high-yield savings (4%+). |
The case for investing in Bitcoin now
Though crypto, generally and Bitcoin, specifically, remain volatile assets, Institutional adoption continues to expand. Goldman Sachs recently filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Bitcoin ETF just days after Morgan Stanley launched its own spot Bitcoin fund, which attracted more than $100 million in investments in the first week.
Big Wall Street players’ appetite for crypto, specifically Bitcoin, hasn’t abated with the recent price pullback, as major investment banks continue to offer new ways to profit off Bitcoin exposure. A secondary effect of institutional investment is tied to the relative scarcity of Bitcoin, which is baked into its structure.
Bitcoin’s code caps the supply at 21 million coins, and “the halving,” a regular reduction of the rewards for Bitcoin mining, reduces the pace of new issuance. With fewer new Bitcoins in circulation and big banks using their massive resources to scoop up large holdings, bulls argue the price of Bitcoin can only go higher.
Bulls also argue Bitcoin still offers portfolio diversification – at least in some macro environments.
A 2025 paper in The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance found that adding Bitcoin improved risk-adjusted portfolio performance during periods of high U.S. economic policy uncertainty.
However, the more pressing question for investors in 2026 is whether Bitcoin is an effective hedge against inflation. On that front, the evidence isn’t as clear cut.
The case against dipping back into Bitcoin
Are we looking at another bull-run opportunity like those in 2015, 2021 and 2024? The answer has to do with how much volatility you can stomach as an investor and how long you’re willing to wait for Bitcoin prices to start rising again.
The crypto market is very volatile, a fact no investor, seasoned or newbie, should overlook. Though Bitcoin is generally the least volatile of the many coins on the market, it’s still more volatile than other assets – up to five times more volatile than the S&P500. Gold, on the other hand, is less volatile than the S&P500.
Higher volatility means bigger price swings and greater risk.
If you are thinking of getting into Bitcoin because the price is low, know that it could go even lower. Even if you think in the long term, which in this case is years, not months, that Bitcoin will reclaim and surpass its October 2025 high, it could still wander in a depressed range for months.
Investing at the beginning of a crypto winter means you might miss out on more profitable investments, which economists call lost opportunity costs. Moreover, buying Bitcoin through an exchange like SoFi means you won’t earn interest on your holdings.
For investors who bought Bitcoin in September 2024 and held onto it, they locked up their money for 18 months without any profit to show for it. The same amount invested in a high-yield savings account would have returned 4% without risking any principal.
Bitcoin faces other potential problems as well, including an uncertain regulatory environment, which is deeply influenced by the current uncertain political environment in the U.S. Since 2020, Bitcoin has also been highly correlated with the U.S. tech industry, often referred to as “the Magnificent 7,” making it more like a risk-on tech stock than a dependable store of value in uncertain times.
For investors who believe in the long-term thesis behind blockchain technology, Bitcoin is certainly trading at a discount to its all-time high. If you’ve never invested in Bitcoin before, now might be the right time by opening an account with SoFi.
But if you’re not optimistic about the direction of the economy, it might be a lot of risk to shoulder.
FAQ: Bitcoin investing in 2026
What is Eric Trump saying about crypto?
Eric Trump has been a strong advocate for cryptocurrency and Bitcoin, saying that he believes the “digital gold” will reach $1 million in the near future. He along with Alex and Zach Witkoff is a founding member of World Liberty Financial and its “Web3 Ambassador.”
How much would I have if I had invested $10,000 in Bitcoin five years ago?
A $10,000 investment in Bitcoin in mid-April of 2021 would be worth $12,750 today, a 27.5% increase. If you had put that same $10,000 into Nvidia stock, you would have $133,400, a gain of 1,234%.
What is the easiest way to invest in Bitcoin?
The simplest way to invest in Bitcoin is to open an account with a major exchange like SoFi or Coinbase. These exchanges allow you to transfer funds from a linked bank account and trade a variety of major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin.