Key Points
-
Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle of boom and bust, with three good years followed by one bad year.
-
After 10 months of steep losses, Bitcoin could finally be in recovery mode.
-
While the statistical evidence is compelling, there is no guarantee that history will continue to repeat at such regular intervals.
On the surface, Bitcoin(CRYPTO: BTC) might look like the type of digital asset you wouldn’t touch with a 10-foot pole. After all, it’s now down 50% from its all-time high last October, and trades for just $64,000. Billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham recently warned that Bitcoin will now “dwindle away” with a whimper.
But, if history is any guide, Bitcoin could be a great bargain right now. Here’s why.
Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now, when you join Stock Advisor. See the stocks »
&&
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle
The first thing you need to know about Bitcoin is that it typically trades in four-year cycles of boom and bust. So the current downturn in the price of Bitcoin is nothing new. Crypto investors have seen this story before: Bitcoin has three fantastic years, and then crashes in value. A new cycle then begins.
Perhaps this is just a historical coincidence, and can be safely ignored. But Bitcoin does undergo a much-ballyhooed halving event every four years, and this is generally cited as the reason the four-year cycle persists.
Just think back to the last Bitcoin bear market. After hitting a (then) all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021, Bitcoin crashed in value by 64% in 2022. However, it recovered quickly. In 2023 and 2024, Bitcoin posted triple-digit returns. And, in the first 10 months of 2025, Bitcoin cruised to a new all-time high of $126,000.
So, in hindsight, Bitcoin was arguably “due” for a correction. Remember: three good years, then one bad year. If history repeats itself, this one bad year should eventually lead to a recovery.
That means, after 10 months of atrocious performance, Bitcoin may already be in recovery mode. And, in fact, several high-profile crypto investors — including Cathie Wood of Ark Invest and Brian Armstrong of Coinbase Global(NASDAQ: COIN) — have already called a bottom for Bitcoin.
Image source: Getty Images.
Bear markets keep getting shallower
But wait, it gets better. That’s because every Bitcoin bear market appears to be getting shallower over time. On July 28, Bitcoin Magazine posted a stunning graphic on social media showing that, from peak to trough, the drawdowns are getting shallower over time.
In 2011, for example, the drawdown was 94%. In 2013, the drawdown was 86%. In 2017, the drawdown was 84%. In 2022, the drawdown was 78%. Thus far in 2026, the drawdown has been 54%.
It’s up to you to decide whether Bitcoin is in recovery mode. But the historical evidence should convince most skeptics that Bitcoin will resume its long-term march higher at some point.
For much of its existence, Bitcoin has been one of the top-performing assets in the world. Thus, buying this asset at an extraordinary 50% discount could be a unique buying opportunity. While past performance is no guarantee of future performance, I’m convinced that Bitcoin is an unbelievable bargain right now.
Should you buy stock in Bitcoin right now?
Before you buy stock in Bitcoin, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Bitcoin wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $386,727!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,232,139!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 906% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 208% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of August 1, 2026.
&&
Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool recommends Coinbase Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.