Santiment data showed deep unrealized losses across short-term and long-term holder groups, with 30-day and 365-day MVRV ratios near minus 45% and minus 47%. The MVRV ratio compares market value with realized value, offering a view of how current prices differ from the average token cost basis.
Large negative readings have historically appeared after speculative excess declined, leaving a market with fewer short-term participants and more conviction-driven holders. Bitcoin still traded below its 30-day moving average, while 10x Research identified continued supply pressure from large transfers to the Gemini exchange.
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The Winklevoss twins transferred about $67 million in to Gemini, a move that 10x Research linked to profit-taking pressure. Still, long-term holders increased purchases and helped form a firmer price floor after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh avoided signaling immediate interest rate increases.
That buying activity offset some exchange-related pressure as Bitcoin held above its short-term average and approached the options market’s key expiry levels. Markus Thielen of 10x Research said July has historically delivered Bitcoin’s strongest monthly performance, averaging 9.1% gains before flatter trading in August and September.