Bitcoin BTC has climbed above $82,000 after renewed buying activity and improving on-chain signals pointed to a possible extension of its recent recovery.
According to Glassnode, the latest rally has pushed Bitcoin above its short-term holder cost basis near $79,000, a level that has historically acted as a trigger for sustained upward phases.
The firm noted that reclaiming this threshold often reduces selling pressure, as recent buyers return to profit and become more willing to hold or add exposure.
Data from TradingView showed Bitcoin reaching a multi-month high of $82,240 on Wednesday, extending a rally that has gained roughly 37% from its February low near $60,000.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $81,708.04.
Glassnode’s analysis has identified $92,000 as the next key on-chain target, with the upper bound of the same metric sitting near $92,423, about 13% above current levels.
Glassnode’s dataset showed that similar breakouts above the short-term holder cost basis in January 2023, October 2023, October 2024, and April 2025 were followed by rallies of around 30% within four weeks.
The firm added that such moves tend to attract fresh demand while also forcing bearish traders to unwind positions, accelerating upward momentum.
According to crypto analyst PlanC, holding above this zone would support the view that Bitcoin’s roughly 50% decline from the $126,000 peak was a mid-cycle correction rather than the start of a deeper downturn.
At the same time, crypto analyst BitBull noted that Bitcoin’s short-term holder spent output profit ratio has moved back above 1, which typically indicates that recent buyers are in profit and selling pressure is easing, a condition often seen in early bullish phases.
Bitcoin accumulation trends have also strengthened the bullish case.
Data from CryptoQuant showed long-term holders adding more than 330,000 Bitcoin over the past month, representing about 1.6% of total supply.
The firm noted that such accumulation often coincides with recovery periods.
Institutional flows have also returned, with US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recording three consecutive days of inflows totaling $1.18 billion.
Such inflows can also help support the uptrend in the long term.
Resistance zone and institutional demand in focus
However, Bitcoin is encountering strong resistance between $82,000 and $84,000, where analysts have identified a cluster of large sell orders.
Data cited by analysts showed that the 200-day exponential moving average near $82,600 and the 200-day simple moving average around $83,402 are acting as key technical barriers.
MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe identified $84,000 to $86,000 as the next resistance band, adding that a breakout could open the path toward the 50-week moving average near $90,000.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades also pointed to the same region as a critical test, stating that acceptance above it could push prices into the $90,000 range, while rejection may keep Bitcoin confined below $80,000.
$BTC Testing the low $80Ks region. This corresponds with the November lows and the Daily 200MA/EMA coming in a bit higher.
This is a similar level and retest as we saw before the second leg down earlier this year, where a previous low corresponds with the Daily 200EMA.
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$BTC After Bitcoin finally broke above $72K, it resulted in another ~10% move higher during April. That area should be held by the bulls to not lose this low timeframe bullish market structure.
The key area on the daily/higher timeframe is now that low $80Ks region.
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At the time of publication, Polymarket traders see a 28% chance that the Bitcoin price will hit $90,000 in May.
Bear case warns of rejection risk near $84,000
However, not all analysts expect a smooth continuation.
According to analytics platform TradingShot, Bitcoin is approaching the 200-day simple moving average, describing it as the most critical resistance level of the current bear cycle.
The firm compared the setup to 2022, when a similar retest failed and led to a move toward new lows.
TradingShot added that a rejection from the current “pivot zone” could confirm a continuation of the bear cycle, with downside targets near $50,000.
The analysis noted that the same pattern had formed during previous downtrends, where former support zones turned into resistance.
Meanwhile, pseudonymous analyst Cryptic Trades pointed to the bull market support band near $78,000, formed by the 20-week simple moving average and the 21-week exponential moving average, as a key level to hold.
“I believe that as long as price keeps holding above this range, as well as the April 2025 bottoming formation around $76K, the broader market structure remains intact. The other key level to track is the lost high-timeframe support range marked in purple around $84K, where I believe we could see a short-term rejection,” the analyst wrote.