Liquidity data also showed weaker market conditions. CMCC Crest managing partner Willy Woo said the broader setup remained bearish as both spot and futures liquidity deteriorated. Woo had earlier mapped a rebound to the mid-$70,000 region in March, but later said the broader market regime had weakened.
From a cycle perspective, Woo identified the $40,000 to $45,000 range as a typical bear-market floor, with timing leaning toward the fourth quarter as the end of the bearish phase. If falls into this zone, the drawdown from the $126,000 peak would deepen to about 64% to 68%. Based on Ecoinometrics data, this type of decline has historically stretched the recovery period to around 440 days from the cycle high, which would place a return to prior highs after Q2 2027.