Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin could hit $500K by end of 2026 as Fed easing and liquidity boost market conditions.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has projected that Bitcoin could rally to $500,000 by the end of 2026. This prediction is linked to expected monetary policy changes in the United States, especially the potential return of quantitative easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve.
Hayes believes that increasing liquidity and leadership changes at the Fed could drive Bitcoin’s price to new highs.
Hayes Expects Bitcoin Surge Driven by Fed Policy Shift
In a recent interview, Hayes stated that Bitcoin could reach $500,000 by the end of next year. He linked this forecast to possible QE measures by the Fed. Hayes noted that current market conditions still support long-term bullish momentum despite recent price drops.
He added that the crash to around $81,000 may have marked the bottom. Hayes also said that liquidity in the crypto market has improved. This improvement, combined with future Fed actions, could help Bitcoin move higher.
Hayes explained that a push for affordability and inflation may cause the government to ease monetary policies. This could reduce pressure on financial markets, encouraging further interest in crypto.
Trump Administration Could Influence Fed Policy
Hayes predicted that a possible return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency may affect the Federal Reserve. He expects Trump to gain influence over the Fed Board, which could lead to more supportive monetary policies like QE. Hayes believes this shift could start as early as 2025.
He mentioned that Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are working to gain control of the Fed. Hayes estimated that there is a 90% chance Trump will have a majority on the board. This control could allow policies that increase liquidity, which may support Bitcoin’s growth.
Kevin Hassett, a known advocate for rate cuts, is reportedly favored to become the next Fed Chair. He could replace Adriana Kugler, whose term ends in January 2026. His leadership would likely signal a return to QE.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom Is Near, Says Arthur Hayes: BTC Price Forecast
Market Liquidity and Long-Term Outlook
Hayes previously mentioned that declining U.S. dollar liquidity had contributed to the earlier crypto market downturn. However, he believes liquidity conditions are now improving, which could reduce downward pressure on Bitcoin. He also said that he does not expect large drawdowns going forward.
The BitMEX co-founder suggested that the November crash may be the final major correction in the current cycle. He predicted that even a potential stock market decline may not severely affect Bitcoin’s price from this point.
Hayes concluded that the next cycle top may not come until 2028. He sees this as the point when inflation rhetoric could shift again, potentially slowing the Bitcoin rally. Until then, he expects continued growth fueled by central bank policies.