Bitcoin’s Bear Market?

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The trouble with bull markets is that they never announce their peaks. Bitcoin’s current slide, more than 30% off its October all-time high, begs the question: have we entered a bear market?

There’s certainly a case to be made. November is on track to be bitcoin’s weakest month since the 2022 collapse. And the fourth quarter, usually crypto’s reliable sugar high, is starting to feel more like a cold shower.

Friday’s washout captured the mood. Nearly $2 billion in leveraged bets were wiped out as bitcoin briefly plunged to around $82,000, dragging total crypto market capitalization below $3 trillion for the first time since spring. If early 2025 was defined by relentless inflows and a sense of institutional inevitability, the past two weeks have been a reminder of how quickly sentiment can evaporate.

The ETF data tells the same story. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw $903 million in net outflows on Thursday—their second-largest since launch and the heaviest since February’s tariff‑shock‑driven selloff. The underlying dynamic is fairly mundane: long-time holders, sitting on enormous gains, are cashing out. As Bitfinex analysts note, the selloff is flushing out built-up leverage at a moment when the Fed’s uncertainty about further rate cuts has clipped the market’s risk appetite.

Demand indicators are also cooling. As CryptoQuant researchers put it this week, “we are highly likely to have seen most of this cycle’s demand wave pass.” ETF accumulation has slowed to one of its weakest paces since the products debuted. And the crypto treasury cohort, one of 2025’s defining new buyers, has sharply slowed its bitcoin purchases as their own market caps have cratered in recent months (from a total of $176 billion peak to about $99 billion). Even Strategy, the most consistent buyer, has had to ease off as its stock premium deflated toward NAV.

All of this sits atop the aftershocks of October 10’s mass liquidation, which reopened uncomfortable questions about how well crypto’s market plumbing handles institutional-scale stress.

So where does that leave us? Probably still leaning lower. Galaxy’s Alex Thorn and Beimnet Abebe have flagged classic reflexivity at work: falling prices trigger selling, which triggers more falling prices. And with no obvious catalyst on the horizon, the path of least resistance is, for now, down.

But a little perspective helps. Bitcoin may be off its highs, but it’s still more than 20% above where it was last November. It is now a fairly mainstream asset, recognized by top banks and institutions. Advisors are shifting from cautious “toe-in-the-water” approaches to including it as a strategic allocation within client portfolios. The regulatory backdrop is more constructive than it’s ever been. And a fresh crop of crypto ETFs continues to expand market access. In other words, we may rather be in the deep correction phase, and this time the market isn’t staring into the abyss.