The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the first time since 2023. This hike pushed the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and gold (XAU) lower, with BTC returning back to a consolidation range, while gold retested $4,200.
Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that investors are still expecting the Fed to also hike rates at the October and December 2026 meetings.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are also hiking rates as rising oil prices increase inflation pressures and impact the short-term outlook for Bitcoin and gold prices.
Markets Anticipate Two More Fed Rate Hikes in 2026
Data from CoinGape prediction markets shows that 46% of investors are expecting the Fed to increase interest rates by 25 basis points at the October FOMC meeting.
Another 41% of investors on the CME FedWatch Tool are also expecting rates to increase to between 4.25% and 4.50% at the December FOMC meeting as the Fed begins another monetary policy tightening cycle after the recent rate hike.
Goldman Sachs has also supported the possibility of more hikes. The investment bank noted that the Fed’s rate decision was supported by all 12 members, and this increases the chances that they will introduce more hikes in 2026.
Goldman Sachs also attributed Warsh’s hawkish speech to the increased odds of a rate hike happening two more times this year.
The looming rate hikes are bearish for Bitcoin and gold. If the Fed hikes rates again, it will strengthen the dollar, and because gold and BTC are priced in dollars, their value drops considerably.
Rate hikes also make it more interesting for investors to hold cash or short-term bonds that will deliver higher returns when the rates are high, with very minimal risk.
Bitcoin Defends Key Support Level
The price of Bitcoin is defending support at $75,600 despite concerns that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates two more times in 2026. BTC is now back to consolidating at the range between the range of $76,000 and $80,000.
Still, the price needs to close above the 20-day EMA of $76,800 to confirm that the short-term outlook has changed to favor bulls.
If BTC moves above the 20-day EMA, the price could target the 61.8% Fib of $77,600. A prolonged uptrend could then push it to the psychological obstacle at $80,000.
However, BTC price is also facing increased selling pressure from ETF holders. Data from SoSoValue shows that Bitcoin ETFs have recorded outflows of $746 million in two days since September 15.
The AO bars that are red and shrinking in length also support a bearish future Bitcoin outlook, suggesting that Bitcoin could move to $74,900 again, especially if traders begin to price in the possibility of more rate hikes.
Gold Recovers Post-FOMC Losses
Gold, like Bitcoin, has recovered the drop seen on September 16 after the Fed hiked interest rates. XAU/USD traded at $4,331 at the time of writing.
Analyst Ian Cooper now attributes the gain to weak confidence by traders that the rate hikes will do anything to lower interest rates.
“They know that even if the FED hikes the headline figure, the US Treasury is going to continue to inject liquidity through other means… SO that is why gold and markets are ignoring the FED,” the analyst said.
Still, if the markets begin to price in that the Fed might hike rates by an additional 50 basis points before 2026 ends, it could weaken gold’s rally, and the price might retest the August lows of $4,000 in Q4 2026.