In brief
- Odds of Bitcoin falling below $70,000 before the end of May have risen on Polymarket and Myriad.
- Nevertheless, traders still believe it will hold the line, with odds of it falling below at just 26%.
- Bitcoin’s price slide has been catalyzed by significant ETF outflows and rising crypto liquidations.
Prediction market users think it’s more and more likely that Bitcoin will dip below $70,000 before May ends as the top crypto asset continues its weekly slide.
Down 3% in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin was recently changing hands at $72,739, hanging just 3.9% above the $70,000 mark. Overnight, the price of the leading cryptocurrency by market cap hit a six-week low of $72,669, per data from CoinGecko.
That has led to a major move in the Bitcoin price target market on Myriad—a prediction market platform operated by Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan—which has seen the “under $70,000” odds jump more than 240% in the last 24 hours, though still standing at just 27%.
Traders on Polymarket give similar odds—26%—that Bitcoin will fall below $70,000 before May concludes.
Bitcoin’s slide has been fueled in part by stacking crypto liquidations, which stand at nearly $924 million in the last 24 hours, $851 million of which belong to crypto longs, or bets that the price of a crypto asset will go up.
“Partly this is due to ETF outflows, with serious amounts getting out,” an analyst from Arctic Digital told Decrypt on Bitcoin’s fall earlier Thursday.
In addition to the liquidations, Bitcoin ETFs have lost more than $1 billion in the last two days of trading alone, with $733 million leaving the exchange traded products on Wednesday, according to data from Farside Investors. More than $2.6 billion has left the Bitcoin ETFs during the current eight-day losing streak.
However, while predictors are becoming increasingly bearish on the near-term price, odds have not ballooned for a more precipitous fall for BTC in the next few days.
For example, the odds of Bitcoin dropping below $65,000 before the end of May stand at just 3% on Myriad.
Removing the nearer-term time constraints paints a more bearish picture overall. On Polymarket, predictors make the odds 54% that Bitcoin will dip below $55,000 and 42% that it will trade below $50,000 in 2026.
Earlier this year, crypto analysis firm CryptoQuant called $55,000 the “ultimate bear market bottom” and analysts at Standard Chartered said that Bitcoin could fall as low as $50,000 before a jump back to $100,000.
As it stands now, Bitcoin is more than 42% off its all-time high of $126,080.
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