Bitcoin edged back above USD 95,000 on Monday, recovering from the weekend drop to USD 93,000, its lowest level since late April.
The rebound remains fragile, however, as persistent ETF outflows and diminishing expectations of near-term monetary easing continue to weigh on sentiment.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw another USD 492 million in redemptions on Friday, bringing weekly outflows to USD 1.11 billion and pushing month-to-date withdrawals to USD 2.32 billion.
The macro backdrop also remains challenging for riskier assets, including Bitcoin. Markets now assign only 43% probability to a 25 bps Federal Reserve rate cut in December, sharply lower than the 62% priced just one week ago.
This week’s release of delayed US economic figures, including the September nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday, is expected to be pivotal for shaping rate expectations. The data could generate additional volatility as investors update their views on monetary policy. As a result, weaker data could support cryptocurrencies while stronger-than-expected figures could weigh on performance.