Bitcoin regains lost ground
Following last week’s rejection by its key resistance area amid the Iran war, Bitcoin slid by around 11% from its 4 March $74,071.02 high to Sunday’s $65,618.93 low.
On Monday morning a recovery effort began, though, with the $70,057.25 – $74,071.02 resistance zone being back in the frame.
What is needed now for a medium-term bullish reversal to occur is a rise and daily chart close above last week’s $74,071.02 high. If this were to unfold, previous resistance at the March 2024 high at $73,757.39 and the October 2024 peak at $73,581.22 would be overcome with the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $75,628.45, the 1 to 3 February highs at $79,160.49 – $79,369.55 and the November 2025 low at $80,619.71 being in focus.
If bettered, the December lows at $83,871.20 – $84,445.35 may be reached as well.
Upside pressure is expected to retain the upper hand while the late February lows at $63,046.65 – $62,527.40 hold, as they did on Sunday 8 March.
Bitcoin bullish case:
As long as Bitcoin remains above its February low at $60,132.75, a recovery may still unfold. For it to become probable, the $70,040.75 – $74,071.02 key resistance area will need to be overcome.
A rise and daily close above the current March high at $74,071.02 may put the April 2025 low at $74,441 on the map. If exceeded, the March 2025 low at $76,702.93 may be reached too, ahead of the $80,000 region.
Bitcoin bearish case:
Escalation in the Middle East provoked another sell-off, so far to $65,618.93 on Sunday.
This low was made right within the 12-to-19 February lows at $65,631.93 – $65,107.17 which offered support. Further support may be seen between the 24 to 28 February lows at $63,046.65 – $62,527.40 ahead of the early February trough at $60,132.75.
Short-term outlook:
Neutral with a bullish bias while above the 12 February low at $65,107.17.
Medium-term outlook:
Neutral with a bearish bias while below the current March high at $74,071.02 but above the $56,148.93 mid-August 2024 low; failure there might engage the $50,000 region and the August 2024 low at $49,217.00.