Bitcoin Rally Fades—Where Does Price Go Next?

Bitcoin got the macro excuse to run. It didn’t take it.

Employers cut 23,000 jobs in July—the first net loss since the pandemic-era recovery and a sharp miss against the 95,000 gain economists expected, Decrypt reported Friday. Markets read it as a reason for the Federal Reserve to keep its hands off rates, and Treasury yields fell. That should have been fuel for a risk-on bounce. Instead, Bitcoin’s latest daily candle shows it tapping the average price of the last 50 days and rolling straight back over below that territory.

The performance of the top 10 crypto assets by market cap tells the same story in relative terms. Bitcoin was one of the steadier large caps on the week at +1.17% over seven days, behind only BNB and Solana—yet it still can’t close back above its own moving-average ceiling. When the strongest macro tailwind in weeks can’t flip a death cross, the market is telling you something.

Bitcoin price: What the charts say

Bitcoin is trading at $64,261, down 0.92% on the day, pinned just under the $64,568 floor in a market that still carries a death cross—a formation in the charts that’s a classic bearish indicator for traders.

Since the May peak near $80,000, when traders had a glimmer of hope of seeing Bitcoin consolidating a golden cross (the inverse of a death cross), the coin has logged lower highs and lower lows, bleeding through June and July into a volatile, downward-sloping base.

The leg from the $66,921 swing high to the $62,216 low set the structure. Price bounced off that $62,216 floor and tried to reclaim the 50-day exponential moving average, or EMA—the lower edge of the red EMA cloud—but stalled and rolled back. That bounce looks exactly like what bull traps are supposed to look like: enough to draw buyers, not enough to hold. A market this trendless can compress longer than most traders expect.

The average price of the last 50 days still sits below the 200-day moving average, in the formation traders call a death cross. Exponential moving averages smooth out average price over a set period; when the shorter-term average trades under the longer-term one, it tells you the medium-term trajectory remains down. Bulls needed a daily close back above the EMA50 to even start reversing that reading, and they didn’t get it.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, reads 50—dead neutral. RSI is a momentum gauge on a 0–100 scale: above 70 is overbought, below 30 is oversold. At 50, neither buyers nor sellers have the upper hand, which fits a coin that bounced and immediately gave it back.

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is “on” and has been loading for 22 days, with momentum ticking up. Squeezes (when volatility compresses into a tight band) often resolve in the direction of the prior trend, and here the prior trend is down. However, it is not always the case, and the indicator only suggests a big move may be coming, not the most likely direction.

The Average Directional Index, or ADX, sits at 10.6. ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction; readings under 20 mark a directionless, choppy tape where false breakouts and stop hunts are common. At 10.6 the trend has no real conviction—though the directional indicators tilt bearish (DI- sits above DI+), which lines up with the failed EMA50 push rather than fighting it.

What predictors expect

The prediction markets add a second read, and it leans cautious. On Myriad, a prediction market built by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, the market for BTC’s next move prices a drop to $55K at 64.6% odds against 35.4% for a run to $84K.

The monthly resolution books sharpen the picture. In the “BTC Highs in August” event, the $65,000 level already resolved Yes after Bitcoin tagged it earlier this month; above that, the $67,500 mark carries just 48% odds and every higher rung falls off fast ($70,000 at 25%, $72,500 at 11%, $75,000 at 5%).

Predictors think the August high is largely behind us. The “BTC Lows in August” book is the interesting one: a dip to $60,000 is priced at 35%, but a true breakdown to $55,000 sits at only 8%, with $52,500 at 4%. So the crowd fears a wobble toward $60,000 far more than a collapse through $55,000.

That matches the chart. The death cross and the failed EMA200 reclaim argue against a quick return to $80K, but the golden-zone support and the thin $55K odds suggest the base around $62,000 is doing real work.

The bull case: a daily close back above the golden zone at $64,568, and then above the EMA500 that capped the last bounce, opens a run at the $66,921 swing high. That requires the jobs-driven rate-cut narrative to actually pull BTC through the cloud, not just kiss it.

The bear case: losing the $62,216 swing low confirms the lower-low sequence and opens the round $60,000 figure and the $58,000 shelf below it. The death cross, the negative Squeeze momentum, and the failed EMA50 reclaim all point the same way. For now, the next leg does not appear to be up.