Crypto asset manager Bitwise is betting big on bitcoin’s (BTC) future, projecting that the next decade will mark a period of outsized growth for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
In a report published Thursday, Bitwise analysts predicted that bitcoin could become the best-performing institutional asset over the next 10 years, with its price climbing to $1.3 million by 2035.
The prediction comes at a time when the bitcoin price has reached new all-time highs and is trading above $100,000 amid better regulatory clarity, and more institutional investors are jumping into the sector.
Bitwise’s new price prediction implies a compound annual growth rate of 28.3%, returns that would dwarf most traditional assets, though the firm cautions that volatility will remain a defining feature of the market, even if it trends lower than in past cycles.
Three forces will drive adoption and price appreciation, analysts led by Matt Hougan wrote.
The first catalyst is bitcoin’s ongoing emergence as an institutional-grade asset. The second is rising demand for hard-asset exposure in an inflationary environment, and the third is the fixed nature of its new supply.
Bitwise also said that bitcoin’s “historic four-year cycle” thesis, which has long been a touchstone for traders, is no longer relevant.
Still, it warns investors should expect steep drawdowns. Among the biggest risks: regulatory shifts, legislative changes in major markets, and the challenges of a relatively new asset with limited historical data.
While quantum computing and other technological threats are on the radar, Bitwise sees them as secondary concerns.
The firm also concedes that forecasting bitcoin’s future is fraught with uncertainty, given the lack of long-term data. “We aim to err on the side of being conservative,” the note said, underscoring that models for such projections are still evolving.
Read more: The ‘Great Wealth Transfer’ Could See More Than $200B Flow Into Bitcoin: Xapo Bank