Bitcoin price held steady above the important support level of $72,000 today, April 10, as talks between Iran and the US started in Pakistan. Still, there are risks that the recently announced ceasefire may not last, with JPMorgan delivering a dire warning.
JPMorgan Has Warned About the US-Iran Ceasefire
Bitcoin price has held steady above the key support level at $70,000, helped by the recently announced US-Iran ceasefire that ended the war. A complete ending of the war is highly bullish for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as it will lead to lower inflation and higher asset prices.
However, the main risk is that the ceasefire may not last as key concerns remain. For example, the US is concerned about the ongoing tolling of the Strait of Hormuz, while Israel is putting pressure on the US to end the ceasefire. Also, the US continues to add troops to the Middle East.
In a report, analysts at JPMorgan warned that an exit from the ceasefire will lead to a new high for crude oil prices and new lows of the equity market. Crude oil jumped to nearly $120 as the war continued and has now pulled back to $95. A Kalshi poll estimates that WTI crude oil will jump to $130 and above this year.
Soaring crude oil prices will lead to higher consumer prices, making it hard for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as Donald Trump has pressed.
Data released on Friday showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.4% in February to 3.3% in March, its highest level since March 2024. Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, rose from 2.5% to 2.77%, a trend that may continue if the ceasefire ends.
Bitcoin Price Bearish Pennant is Nearing its Confluence
Technical analysis suggests that the BTC price may be on the verge of a major bearish breakdown in the near term. The weekly chart shows that the symmetrical triangle pattern is nearing its confluence. This triangle is part of the bearish pennant pattern, which started to form in January this year.
Bitcoin’s Supertrend indicator has remained in the red since October last year. It has also moved below the 50-week moving average and is along the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.
Therefore, the coin will likely have a strong bearish breakdown, potentially to the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level at $57,490, down by 20% from the current level.
On the other hand, a complete ceasefire will lead to a strong BTC price rebound, potentially to $100,000 and above.