The Bitcoin price has been stuck between $65,000 and $75,000 since early February, and nothing has broken the range. Now two events are lining up that could finally force a move in either direction.
First is Powell’s speech at Harvard on March 30, one of his last public appearances before his term ends on May 15. He said the Fed faces unusually high uncertainty, monetary tools can’t fix the oil-driven inflation problem, and that the U.S. national debt is on an unsustainable path. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) barely moved on the remarks, but what he didn’t say matters just as much: no hints on rate cuts or discussions on future policy actions.
The second is the March Jobs Report coming on April 3, which could be the event that actually moves the Bitcoin price. February’s number came in at negative 92,000 jobs—the worst monthly loss since December 2020—so if March follows the same trend, rate cut expectations could shift overnight. The report drops on Good Friday, when every stock and bond market in the country is closed, making crypto the only major market reacting in real time.
What Did Powell Say at Harvard and What Does It Mean for Bitcoin?
Powell’s Harvard appearance on March 30 was unscripted. It was a moderated conversation with an introductory economics class, and the outcome was that rates aren’t moving. He told students the Fed’s policy rate is in a good place to hold steady, confirming what everyone already suspected. No cuts are coming anytime soon, as the Fed is content to wait and watch while the oil shock plays out.
The important thing for Bitcoin right now is what Powell said about supply shocks. He was direct, stating that monetary tools have no meaningful effect on them. That means the Fed can’t fix the inflation problem caused by oil above $100 and the Iran war, and it’s not going to try.
Tariffs could add another 0.5% to 1% on top of that, and Powell acknowledged the Fed hasn’t made as much progress on inflation as it had hoped. For anyone waiting for a rate cut to push Bitcoin out of its range, Powell essentially said don’t hold your breath.
Powell also warned that the national debt is growing faster than the economy and called the path “not sustainable,” adding that delays in addressing it will not end well. Such a remark from the Fed Chair reinforces the case for Bitcoin as a hedge against long-term fiscal instability—but it does nothing for the short-term price, which is still stuck waiting for rate cuts that aren’t coming.
Why Is Friday’s Jobs Report the Biggest Event for Bitcoin This Week?
Powell made it clear the Fed isn’t going to move based on words—it needs data. And the most important piece of data between now and the next FOMC meeting on April 29 is the March Jobs Report, which drops on April 3 at 8:30 AM Eastern. After February’s loss of 92,000 jobs, another weak month in March would give the Fed a much stronger reason to start cutting rates earlier than December—and that’s the one thing that could push Bitcoin out of the range it’s been stuck in.
The FactSet consensus calls for +57,000 jobs in March, which would be a rebound but still far below the pre-2026 average of around 180,000 per month. A lot of February’s damage came from the Kaiser Permanente strike that pulled roughly 30,000 healthcare workers off payrolls, and those jobs should come back in the March data.
If the number is above 75,000, rate cuts could be pushed further out and Bitcoin will likely drift toward the lower end of its range near $63,000 to $65,000. But if it comes in below 30,000 or negative again, rate cut expectations could shift and Bitcoin could push toward $70,000 to $75,000.
What makes April 3 different from any other Jobs Report day is that it falls on Good Friday. The NYSE, Nasdaq, and bond markets are all closed, which means Bitcoin and crypto will be the only major markets reacting to the data in real time. Cash equity trading doesn’t resume until Monday April 6, so if the number surprises in either direction, crypto could overshoot without the usual equity market anchor to stabilize price action.
What Does This Mean for Bitcoin’s Price Range?
Powell’s speech didn’t break the range, and it wasn’t going to—he deliberately avoided giving the market anything to trade on. With his term ending May 15 and no confirmed successor yet, the Fed is heading into one of the most important data weeks of 2026 without clear leadership or direction. That leaves the Jobs Report on April 3 as the only event with enough weight to actually shift rate expectations and force Bitcoin out of the $65,000 to $75,000 range it’s been in since February.
The data drops at 8:30 AM Eastern with no stock or bond market open to absorb the reaction. Crypto will price the number alone for nearly three full days before equity trading resumes on April 6. A weak report could spark a rally that pushes BTC toward $75,000, while a strong one could send it retesting $63,000 to $65,000 support with no equity floor to catch it. Either way, April 3 is shaping up to be the most volatile day for Bitcoin in weeks, and the jobs number will set the direction for the rest of the month.