History suggests more pain may stil be coming for bitcoin.
In a note to clients this month, strategists at Ned Davis Research said they saw potential downside ahead for the world’s top crypto, even after major selling that’s hammered the crypto in recent months. Should its bear market become a full-blown bitcoin winter, the coin could drop to as low as $31,000, according to Pat Tschosik, NDR’s chief thematic strategist, and analyst Philippe Mouls.
Bitcoin, which has tumbled 44% from its October peak, traded around $69,180 on Friday. Should the coin fall to the $31,000 mark, that implies the crypto falling another 55% from its current levels.
Tschosik and Mouls said their analysis of past bitcoin drops had led them to expect a 70%-75% peak-to-trough decline in the crypto should the current sell-off escalate into winter.
Across bitcoin winters dating back to 2011, bitcoin has dropped an average 84%, NDR said. The average bitcoin winter has also lasted an average of 225 days, Tschosik and Mouls added, though it’s only been 129 days since bitcoin peaked in early October.
Ned Davis Research
Tschosik and Mouls noted that a winter wasn’t necessarily guaranteed, given that bitcoin has more institutional buyers than in the past, which could create greater stability in bitcoin’s price.
“Notice the winters/major bears are getting slightly less severe over time in terms of percent decline and we think that will continue,” they said of their price forecast.
Talk of more pain for crypto has picked up in recent weeks as bitcoin’s decline has steepened. John Blank, the chief strategist at Zacks Investment Research, speculated that the coin could drop to as low as $40,000, given that the average crypto winter lasts for over a year. Stifel predicted last week that the full decline could take it to around $38,000.