In the long run, these are all positive factors that support a bullish outlook for BTC, no matter what has happened in the near term.
That said, a supportive regulatory and macro backdrop does not necessarily mean that we will get another all-time high in the next few months, as Bitcoin’s technical indicators still call for some caution.
Weak January = Strong February for Bitcoin?
Historically, January has been a good month for BTC. Data from CoinGlass shows that, in 7 out of the last 6 years, the token has ended the month with a positive performance.
These historical gains range from 0.62% in 2024 to 44% in 2013. Thus far, BTC leans toward finishing the month with a positive result. However, if we finish with gains below 9%, this would be second-worst January for the token in these past 14 years.
The good news is: February’s odds are much better.
Let’s look at history once again. After its underwhelming January 2024 1% gain, BTC closed the next month with a robust 44% uptick and another 17% in March.
In contrast, the next two best first months of the year for the token, January 2014 and January 2025, were followed by strong drops of 31% and 17%, respectively.
So these are my baseline scenarios for the top crypto, depending on what happens this month.
Scenario 1 – Weak performance in January, strong boost in February
In 10 out of the past 13 years, BTC has closed February with gains. One of its best Februaries came after a 1% gain the month before. Hence, if we finish the month with weak gains, we may get a strong boost in the next one.
Scenario 2 – Big drop (2025 all over again)