Bitcoin price surged more than 2% in the last 24 hours despite headline US CPI inflation rising to 4.2%, Bitcoin ETF outflows, and the US-Iran war escalation. BTC is approaching a potential structural bottom amid weakening demand and on-chain signals, according to leading analytics firm CryptoQuant.
Will Bitcoin Price Bottom Near Realized Price?
Bitcoin price has historically bottomed near its realized price. The level sits around $53,600 in this cycle, indicating BTC likely approaching a structural floor, according to CryptoQuant data.
“Historically, it’s a level that would confirm a bottom (the realized price). It doesn’t mean that we necessarily hit it, but it is still a possibility, especially with bitcoin’s demand weakness,” said CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno.
Bitcoin price fell to a fresh bear market low of around $59,000 last week, leaving it just 9% above its current realized price. However, BTC has since recovered and is currently trading at around $62,150 amid a rise in market sentiment following monthly core CPI inflation coming below expectations.
He added that the bottom may be near in terms of price level, but a shift into a bull market requires a “constructive demand recovery, a condition not yet visible in the data.”
The current price level should be interpreted as Bitcoin price bottom until total demand stabilizes, ETF flows recover, and realized losses reach capitulation level peaks, not a confirmed cycle bottom. Meanwhile, BlackRock Bitcoin Premium Income ETF signals launch after it confirmed seed and other details.
Furthermore, Glassnode noted that Bitcoin price fell below $60K as profitability collapsed, with short-term buyers sinking into losses and realized losses accelerating. Institutional demand has weakened, while options markets continued to price in elevated risk.
4-Year Cycle Signals BTC Recovery Is Near
Benjamin Cowen, a prominent cycle analyst and founder of Into the Cryptoverse, reiterated that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains intact. He predicts Bitcoin price to likely bottom near October, in line with historical midterm year patterns.
He claimed BTC could retest or dip below $60,000 again, with macro headwinds delaying recovery until late in the year. However, Benjamin Cowen highlighted Bitcoin price is currently bouncing from the key 200-weekly moving average.
However, Bitcoin price could form a double bottom on the daily chart, with massive support in the region. Analysts see a reversal could happen from these levels, with support from massive trading volume and options traders’ demand.
Moreover, Bitcoin price is flashing a buy signal as it trades in the Fibonacci Golden Zone in the weekly timeframe, which is a critical pullback area. Also, the 200-WMA in the region indicates potential recovery towards $70,000.
CoinGlass data showed massive buying in the derivatives market. At the time of writing, the total BTC futures open interest jumped nearly 2% to $45.71 billion in the last 24 hours. BTC futures OI on CME, Binance, and OKX climbed almost 5%, 2% and 4%, respectively. This signals bullish sentiment among derivatives traders.
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