Historically, the 200-week SMA also marked or closely tracked major cycle-bottom zones in 2015, 2018 and 2020.
That makes the current retest important. A clean weekly close below it would weaken the “cycle floor” argument and open the door to the bear-flag target near $50,000.
BTC’s momentum backdrop is also weak. The weekly relative strength index (RSI) is near the high-30s, while price remains below the 20-week (green) and 50-week (red) SMAs, keeping sellers in control unless BTC quickly reclaims the $72,000–$75,000 area.
Whale Selling Adds Pressure as Small Traders Buy the Dip
On-chain data supports the bearish setup.