That increases the odds of Bitcoin’s extended selloff in 2026 if it paints the death cross signal. Adding to the risk is the formation of a bear pennant, a classic bearish continuation structure, akin to how the 2022 bear trend continued after painting a bear flag.
The combination of these bearish signals may lead to the repeat of the 2022 bear market. BTC could drop by another 50% from its current levels, hitting the $30,000–$35,000 range by 2026’s end if the fractal repeats.
Jane Street Chatter May Not Help BTC Rally Sustain
In my view, the broader market treated Nvidia’s earnings as good, not great. As a result, US futures turned lower the next morning.
Bitcoin showed the same hesitation. It hit $70,000 and then slipped back, which often happens in a bear trap. A headline forces short sellers to cover, price jumps to a high level, and traders mistake that move for a real trend change.
Some bulls also blamed BTC’s 50%-plus crash in recent months on Jane Street, a quant investment firms, arguing that this pressure eased, which may allow Bitcoin to rise. But that idea is not proven.