The most likely near-term scenario is continued in the range of $110,000 to $120,000. This base case assumes that markets will remain patient while waiting for clarity on interest rates, inflation, and regulatory developments.
In the bull case, if Bitcoin manages to break through the $116,000 resistance decisively, momentum could accelerate, and prices may reach $150,000 or more before the end of the year. Institutional demand, favorable technical patterns, and historical seasonal trends provide support for this scenario.
In the bear case, failure to break resistance combined with unexpected shocks, such as disappointing rate cuts, a resurgence of inflation, or stricter regulations, could push Bitcoin back toward the $100,000 to $110,000 range. A more pessimistic scenario sees the possibility of deeper corrections if global conditions worsen significantly.