Bitcoin Outlook 2026: Cryptocurrency Could Slide To $40,000, Drawdown Risk Of 65-70%, Warns Luke Gromen | Cryptocurrency News

Bitcoin Outlook 2026

Bitcoin Outlook 2026: Global macro strategist Luke Gromen turns cautious on the near-term outlook of Bitcoin, saying that ‘it could slide toward $40,000.

In a recent podcast, Gromen stresses that currency debasement will turn investors toward assets like gold and Bitcoin.

Currency debasement is the value of the US dollar losing strength over time.

Gromen, as reported by TheStreet, gold and select equities may offer a better option or more predictable way to play that trade over the coming years.

Commenting on the risk-reward scenario of Bitcoin, Gromen said Bitcoin’s failure to make new highs relative to gold shows a key warning sign. He also added that a break below key long-term technical levels.

According to Gromen, similar technical breakdowns in the recent past were followed by drawdowns, raising concerns that Bitcoin could face a deeper correction if history repeats.

“When these technicals broke, each of the last three times, the median decline in Bitcoin was 65%–70% each time,” he said, as reported by TheStreet.

Bitcoin Sinks Below $86K Mark

Bitcoin has sunk below $86K mark, extending its downward fall in December that began in late November. This marks a decline of 30-32 per cent from the all-time high of the cryptocurrency at $126,272 in early October 2025.

According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin was trading at $85,798 around 9:40 AM. While its market cap stood at $1.71 trillion, reflecting a drop of 4 per cent.

The pullback has been driven by short-term whale profit-taking of nearly $2.78 billion and rising expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, which has pressured risk assets, according to Akshat Siddhant, Lead Quant Analyst, Mudrex.

Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX added that weak macro signals from China, slowing domestic industrial output, have reinforced concerns around global growth, pressuring commodities, equities, and now crypto.