Despite macroeconomic headwinds, Bitcoin (BTC) looks primed to create a new all-time high (ATH), charged by positive Q4 2024 seasonality.
Bitcoin New ATH On The Horizon?
On October 28, BTC surged past $71,000, sparking optimism for a new ATH above the $73,737 peak recorded in March this year. Although BTC has crossed the $70,000 threshold multiple times since then, it has yet to set a new ATH.
According to a recent report from the cryptocurrency trading platform Bitfinex, Bitcoin could be on track for a new ATH shortly after the US presidential election. Bitcoin is often seen as a “Trump trade,” exhibiting a strong correlation with Donald Trump’s election odds.
For example, after a 6% decline last week, BTC has regained all losses, coinciding with Trump’s rising election odds on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform.
At the time of writing, Trump leads with a 66.1% chance of winning versus Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who stands at 33.9%. However, opinion polls show a close race, making the election outcome uncertain.
A possible Trump victory is stirring the options market. According to the report, while short-term volatility may increase closer to election results, BTC’s long-term bullish outlook remains intact. It states:
Options expiring on key dates around the election are commanding higher premiums, with implied volatility expected to peak at 100 daily vol on November 8th, just after Election Day – indicating that the market is bracing for potential turbulence. Regardless of the election outcome, short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual though we remain confident in longer-term price appreciation.
It is worth highlighting that BTC dipped as low as $52,756 in September. However, the premier digital asset rallied almost 30% in October, inspiring some confidence in the “Uptober” narrative.
Seasonality Is On Bitcoin’s Side
The report emphasizes that BTC is positioned to benefit from “favorable Q4 seasonality.” Historically, Q4 has been profitable for BTC during halving years, giving a median quarterly return of 31.34%.
The buildup in call options expiring December 27 – especially at the $80,000 strike price – also bolsters BTC’s Q4 2024 bullish outlook. The report adds:
As options open interest climbs to new highs, the market is showing signs of positioning for a post-election surge, potentially propelling Bitcoin towards—and beyond—its all-time high of $73,666.
In similar news earlier this month, crypto research firm K33 Research remarked that the latest positive developments in the FTX fiasco propel Bitcoin’s bullish Q4 narrative.
BTC trades at $71,110 at press time, up 3.1% in the past 24 hours and about 3.5% away from its current ATH. Whether BTC will continue its upward trend through the rest of the quarter or face another rejection remains to be seen.
Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Charts from Polymarket and TradingView.com