Bitcoin has been climbing. After weeks of extreme fear readings and sustained ETF outflows, the market is showing its first signs of life since the June lows.
But crypto analyst Ali Martinez, who posts on X as Ali Charts, wants investors to stay focused on one specific number before reading too much into the recovery. That number is $70,920.
According to Martinez, the MVRV Pricing Bands, a metric that tracks whether Bitcoin is trading at a premium or discount to its aggregate investor cost basis, place the immediate resistance level exactly there.
This is the -0.5 Band, the point where the average cost of Bitcoin across the broader market begins to create meaningful sell-side pressure.
Investors who bought near this level are sitting at or near breakeven. When price returns to their entry point, many sell.
Why this level is different from the others
Martinez has been one of the more precise voices on Bitcoin’s chart through this entire bear stretch. In early July, he mentioned that Bitcoin was stuck between the -0.5 and -1.0 MVRV bands with no clear valuation edge, and that his buy signal would only trigger at the -1.0 band, which sat at $49,867.
Related: SpaceX stock hits an all-time low below IPO price, what it means for its 18,712 BTC
Bitcoin did not reach that level. Instead it held near $60,000 and has since rebounded toward $66,000.
That rebound now faces its first serious test. A close above $70,920 would confirm that the overhead supply from investors near their cost basis has been absorbed, and that the market has enough buying power behind it to sustain the move rather than simply retrace it.
What the data said before the rebound
The road to this point was not straightforward. Martinez has already warned that Bitcoin’s apparent demand had stayed negative for 208 consecutive days, dropping to a fresh low of -273,000 BTC.
Trending on TheStreet Roundtable:
Earlier, the Coinbase Premium Index had been negative for 46 straight days, pointing to a sustained absence of US institutional buying.
Both signals have begun to improve. But improvement is not confirmation. $70,920 is where confirmation happens.
Related: If Musk had bought Bitcoin and gold instead of Twitter, here’s what it would be worth today
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Jul 23, 2026, where it first appeared in the MARKETS section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.