Top crypto analyst warns Bitcoin may bottom near $25,000 in 2026, citing historical 70-80% drawdowns after cycle peaks
Bitcoin may face a major correction to $25,000 in 2026, according to a cycle analysis shared by crypto veteran Richard Keskküla on LinkedIn.
Keskküla, who has eight years in the cryptocurrency space, posted a chart showing historical Bitcoin’s price patterns. The analysis suggests the current cycle could follow previous market behaviors.
Historical Bitcoin Cycle Patterns Point to Deep Correction
The analyst outlined Bitcoin’s consistent cycle structure across three major periods. Each cycle showed a blow-off top followed by 70-80% drawdowns.
The 2012 peak led to a 79% decline into 2015. Similarly, the 2017 top resulted in an 81% drawdown by 2019. The 2021 cycle saw a 75% drop into the 2022-2023 bottom.
Each corrective phase lasted approximately 1,400 to 1,450 days before a new cycle began. Keskküla emphasized that these bottoms occurred after hope faded, not during initial panic selling.
Bitcoin Trading Below $90K as Projection Surfaces
Bitcoin currently trades at $88,887.02, according to CoinGecko data. The price represents a 0.88% gain over 24 hours but a 0.88% decline across the past week.
The 24-hour trading volume stands at $27.3 billion. Price action remains relatively stable as market participants digest various technical analyses.
Related Reading: Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Surge to $200K as Liquidity Returns
Analyst Questions Whether Investors Would Buy the Bottom
Keskküla’s chart projects a potential 2025 cycle top followed by another extended correction. The timeline aligns with previous reset periods of roughly 1,430 days.
The analyst posed a direct question to his audience. Would investors buy BTC at $25,000 if sentiment turned overwhelmingly negative?
He clarified that the projection doesn’t suggest Bitcoin’s failure. Instead, it reinforces the asset’s cyclical nature of excess optimism, deep compression, and eventual renewal.
The chart shows Bitcoin moving within a long-term rising channel. However, volatility concentrates around cycle peaks and subsequent collapses.
Keskküla noted that historically compelling entry points occurred when market interest collapsed. These opportunities emerged after upside narratives faded from public discussion.